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Primeira Liga

Referee: Tiago Martins

Porto

U S S S S

5–1

Full-time

Arouca

U S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Porto Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

83%

67%

Points per game

2,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

83%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,5

2,0

Scored

3,0

1,5

Conceded

0,5

Goal diff per game

+2,5

+1,0

This season — Primeira Liga · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 54%

69%

38%

Points per game

2,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

54%

46%

Both score Ø 46%

46%

Average goals

3,1

2,5

Scored

2,4

1,1

Conceded

0,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,7

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

59% Possession 41%

16 Shots 8

11 Shots on target 2

1 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

5 Corners 3

5 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Porto 2. · Arouca 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	13	12	1	0	+30	37
2	Porto	13	9	2	2	+22	29
3	Sp Braga	13	9	1	3	+17	28
4	Casa Pia	14	8	2	4	+4	26
5	Sp Lisbon	13	8	1	4	+11	25
6	Guimaraes	13	7	2	4	+1	23
7	Rio Ave	14	5	4	5	-2	19
8	Portimonense	14	6	1	7	-3	19
9	Chaves	13	5	4	4	-3	19
10	Arouca	13	5	4	4	-5	19
11	Boavista	13	5	2	6	-9	17
12	Estoril	13	4	4	5	-4	16
13	Vizela	13	4	3	6	-2	15
14	Santa Clara	13	3	4	6	-2	13
15	Famalicao	13	3	2	8	-7	11
16	Gil Vicente	13	2	3	8	-10	9
17	Maritimo	14	1	4	9	-19	7
18	Pacos Ferreira	13	0	2	11	-19	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	7	7	0	0	+20	21
2	Guimaraes	7	5	1	1	+4	16
3	Porto	6	5	0	1	+16	15
4	Sp Lisbon	6	5	0	1	+12	15
5	Rio Ave	7	4	1	2	+3	13
6	Boavista	7	3	2	2	-3	11
7	Sp Braga	6	3	1	2	+6	10
8	Casa Pia	7	3	1	3	+1	10
9	Portimonense	8	3	1	4	-2	10
10	Arouca	7	3	1	3	-3	10
11	Santa Clara	7	2	3	2	+1	9
12	Famalicao	6	3	0	3	+1	9
13	Chaves	6	1	4	1	+1	7
14	Gil Vicente	7	1	2	4	-4	5
15	Estoril	6	1	2	3	-6	5
16	Vizela	6	1	1	4	-3	4
17	Maritimo	6	0	2	4	-4	2
18	Pacos Ferreira	7	0	1	6	-11	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Braga	7	6	0	1	+11	18
2	Benfica	6	5	1	0	+10	16
3	Casa Pia	7	5	1	1	+3	16
4	Porto	7	4	2	1	+6	14
5	Chaves	7	4	0	3	-4	12
6	Estoril	7	3	2	2	+2	11
7	Vizela	7	3	2	2	+1	11
8	Sp Lisbon	7	3	1	3	-1	10
9	Portimonense	6	3	0	3	-1	9
10	Arouca	6	2	3	1	-2	9
11	Guimaraes	6	2	1	3	-3	7
12	Rio Ave	7	1	3	3	-5	6
13	Boavista	6	2	0	4	-6	6
14	Maritimo	8	1	2	5	-15	5
15	Santa Clara	6	1	1	4	-3	4
16	Gil Vicente	6	1	1	4	-6	4
17	Famalicao	7	0	2	5	-8	2
18	Pacos Ferreira	6	0	1	5	-8	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.