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Primeira Liga

Referee: Hélder Malheiro

Arouca

T T T S U

0–2

Full-time

Porto

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Porto

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

17%

100%

Points per game

0,8

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

50%

100%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,7

4,2

Scored

0,7

3,2

Conceded

2,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,3

+2,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 55%

20%

90%

Points per game

0,9

2,8

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

60%

80%

Both score Ø 63%

60%

65%

Average goals

2,8

3,4

Scored

1,0

2,7

Conceded

1,8

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,9

+2,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

45% Possession 55%

6 Shots 15

1 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 3

2 Offside 2

14 Free kicks against 18

5 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arouca 15. · Porto 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	20	18	2	0	+39	56
2	Sp Lisbon	20	16	2	2	+26	50
3	Benfica	20	14	2	4	+35	44
4	Sp Braga	21	11	5	5	+15	38
5	Gil Vicente	21	9	7	5	+8	34
6	Guimaraes	21	8	6	7	+6	30
7	Estoril	21	6	9	6	+1	27
8	Portimonense	21	7	5	9	-2	26
9	Maritimo	21	6	7	8	-5	25
10	Santa Clara	21	6	6	9	-14	24
11	Vizela	21	5	8	8	-12	23
12	Pacos Ferreira	21	4	9	8	-9	21
13	Boavista	21	3	11	7	-9	20
14	Tondela	20	6	2	12	-12	20
15	Arouca	20	4	6	10	-17	18
16	Famalicao	20	3	8	9	-12	17
17	Moreirense	20	3	7	10	-13	16
18	Belenenses	20	2	6	12	-25	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	10	10	0	0	+21	30
2	Sp Lisbon	10	8	1	1	+12	25
3	Sp Braga	11	6	3	2	+11	21
4	Guimaraes	10	6	2	2	+9	20
5	Benfica	10	6	1	3	+14	19
6	Santa Clara	11	5	3	3	-5	18
7	Boavista	11	3	7	1	+3	16
8	Gil Vicente	11	4	3	4	+2	15
9	Maritimo	10	3	5	2	+4	14
10	Vizela	11	3	4	4	-4	13
11	Tondela	10	4	0	6	-4	12
12	Pacos Ferreira	11	2	5	4	-3	11
13	Arouca	9	3	1	5	-10	10
14	Estoril	10	1	6	3	-2	9
15	Moreirense	9	2	3	4	-3	9
16	Portimonense	11	2	3	6	-6	9
17	Famalicao	10	1	5	4	-7	8
18	Belenenses	10	2	2	6	-15	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	10	8	2	0	+18	26
2	Benfica	10	8	1	1	+21	25
3	Sp Lisbon	10	8	1	1	+14	25
4	Gil Vicente	10	5	4	1	+6	19
5	Estoril	11	5	3	3	+3	18
6	Sp Braga	10	5	2	3	+4	17
7	Portimonense	10	5	2	3	+4	17
8	Maritimo	11	3	2	6	-9	11
9	Guimaraes	11	2	4	5	-3	10
10	Pacos Ferreira	10	2	4	4	-6	10
11	Vizela	10	2	4	4	-8	10
12	Famalicao	10	2	3	5	-5	9
13	Arouca	11	1	5	5	-7	8
14	Tondela	10	2	2	6	-8	8
15	Moreirense	11	1	4	6	-10	7
16	Santa Clara	10	1	3	6	-9	6
17	Belenenses	10	0	4	6	-10	4
18	Boavista	10	0	4	6	-12	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.