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Champions League
Referee: D Sylwestrzak
Sp Lisbon
S S S T S
4–1
Full-time
Kairat Almaty
S S T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Kairat Almaty
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 58%
83%
33%
Points per game
2,5
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
83%
17%
Both score Ø 34%
67%
0%
Average goals
3,8
1,2
Scored
3,0
0,7
Conceded
0,8
0,5
Goal diff per game
+2,2
+0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

4,25 xG 0,70
64% Possession 36%
21 Shots 9
8 Shots on target 4
5 Blocked shots 3
3 Goalkeeper saves 4
8 Corners 3
0 Offside 1
14 Free kicks against 11
4 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Sp Lisbon Kairat Almaty
Giorgi Kochorashvili 🟨
4′
Luis Javier Suárez 🟨
31′
39′
🟨 Jorginho
1–0 Trincao ⚽
G. Kochorashvili
44′
Half-time 1–0
H. Morita 🔁
↦ G. Kochorashvili
61′
Alisson Santos 🔁
↦ P. Goncalves
61′
F. Ioannidis 🔁
↦ L. Suarez
61′
Matheus Reis 🔁
↦ M. Araujo
65′
2–0 Trincao ⚽
65′
3–0 Alisson Santos ⚽
G. Quenda
67′
4–0 G. Quenda ⚽
H. Morita
68′
Geovany Quenda 🟨
69′
Z. Debast 🔁
↦ M. Hjulmand
70′
70′
🔁 Edmilson
↦ O. Arad
70′
🔁 J. Stanojev
↦ E. Tapalov
75′
🔁 A. Sadybekov
↦ D. Kasabulat
Zeno Debast 🟨
79′
81′
🔁 L. Kurgin
↦ L. Mata
81′
🔁 Ricardinho
↦ A. Mrynskiy
86′
⚽ Edmilson 4–1
Ricardinho
92′
🟨 Dastan Satpaev
Full-time 4–1

Line-ups

Sp Lisbon

4-2-3-1
12 J. Virginia G
22 I. Fresneda D
72 E. Quaresma D
25 G. Inacio D
20 M. Araujo D
42 M. Hjulmand M
14 G. Kochorashvili M
7 G. Quenda M
17 Trincao M
8 P. Goncalves M
97 L. Suarez F
Bench (12)
41 Diego Callai
2 Matheus Reis
5 H. Morita
6 Z. Debast
13 G. Vagiannidis
27 Alisson Santos
28 R. Ribeiro
52 J. Simoes
60 Rayan Lucas
67 L. Anjos
89 F. Ioannidis
91 R. Mangas

Coach: Rui Borges

Kairat Almaty

4-2-3-1
82 S. Kalmurza G
20 E. Tapalov D
14 A. Martynovich D
80 E. Sorokin D
3 L. Mata D
4 D. Kasabulat M
15 O. Arad M
24 A. Mrynskiy M
7 Jorginho M
55 V. Gromyko M
9 D. Satpaev F
Bench (9)
31 D. Reimov
98 B. Aldashev
5 L. Kurgin
6 A. Sadybekov
17 O. Baybek
25 A. Shirobokov
26 Edmilson
33 J. Stanojev
99 Ricardinho

Coach: Rafael Urazbakhtin

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

D Sylwestrzak · 105 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,0 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
25,2 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,23 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.