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Primeira Liga

Referee: J Goncalves

Sp Lisbon

S S S S S

1–2

Full-time

Porto

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Porto

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 92%

83%

100%

Points per game

2,7

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,5

3,2

Scored

3,0

2,8

Conceded

0,5

0,3

Goal diff per game

+2,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 17%

33%

Average goals

4,3

3,0

Scored

4,0

3,0

Conceded

0,3

0,0

Goal diff per game

+3,7

+3,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,91 xG 1,53

59% Possession 41%

20 Shots 14

3 Shots on target 7

9 Blocked shots 3

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 3

2 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 15

3 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Lisbon 2. · Porto 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Famalicao	4	3	1	0	+5	+0.2	10
2	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+11	+7.0	9
3	Porto	3	3	0	0	+9	+5.0	9
4	Moreirense	4	3	0	1	+2	+1.8	9
5	Sp Braga	3	2	1	0	+6	+2.2	7
6	Gil Vicente	4	2	1	1	+2	+0.5	7
7	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+4	+3.6	6
8	Arouca	4	1	2	1	-4	-3.4	5
9	Nacional	4	1	1	2	-3	-1.7	4
10	Guimaraes	4	1	1	2	-4	-2.5	4
11	Casa Pia	4	1	0	3	-6	-5.2	3
12	Rio Ave	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.4	2
13	Estrela	3	0	2	1	-1	+1.1	2
14	Estoril	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.6	1
15	Alverca	3	0	1	2	-4	-0.5	1
16	AVS	4	0	1	3	-5	-2.5	1
17	Santa Clara	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.5	0
18	Tondela	3	0	0	3	-7	-3.8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	2	2	0	0	+7	+4.6	6
2	Moreirense	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.2	6
3	Sp Braga	2	1	1	0	+3	+3.1	4
4	Famalicao	2	1	1	0	+3	-0.2	4
5	Arouca	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.9	4
6	Guimaraes	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.8	4
7	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+6	+2.6	3
8	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.6	3
9	Gil Vicente	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.2	3
10	Rio Ave	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
11	Estoril	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.7	1
12	Estrela	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.4	1
13	Santa Clara	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
14	Tondela	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.0	0
15	AVS	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.6	0
16	Alverca	1	0	0	1	-3	+0.9	0
17	Casa Pia	2	0	0	2	-4	-3.0	0
18	Nacional	2	0	0	2	-5	-1.8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+5	+4.4	6
2	Famalicao	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.4	6
3	Nacional	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.0	4
4	Gil Vicente	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.7	4
5	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+3	-0.9	3
6	Porto	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.4	3
7	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.0	3
8	Moreirense	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.6	3
9	Casa Pia	2	1	0	1	-2	-2.2	3
10	Rio Ave	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.9	1
11	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.7	1
12	Alverca	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.4	1
13	AVS	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.9	1
14	Arouca	2	0	1	1	-6	-2.5	1
15	Estoril	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
16	Santa Clara	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.7	0
17	Guimaraes	2	0	0	2	-5	-3.4	0
18	Tondela	2	0	0	2	-6	-3.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.