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Primeira Liga

Referee: Andre Filipe Domingues Narciso

Sp Braga

S U U S U

1–0

Full-time

Guimaraes

T T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Braga Guimaraes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

2,0

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

17%

33%

Average goals

1,8

2,7

Scored

1,5

0,7

Conceded

0,3

2,0

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 1/3 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

100%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

100%

33%

Average goals

4,0

2,3

Scored

2,0

1,0

Conceded

2,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,83 xG 0,23

54% Possession 46%

9 Shots 8

4 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 2

5 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 18

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	4	4	0	0	+9	+5.4	12
2	Sp Lisbon	4	3	1	0	+7	+4.3	10
3	Arouca	4	3	0	1	+4	-1.5	9
4	Santa Clara	4	2	2	0	+2	+2.5	8
5	Gil Vicente	3	2	1	0	+3	+2.5	7
6	Maritimo	4	2	1	1	+1	+0.1	7
7	Estrela	3	1	2	0	+1	-0.8	5
8	Benfica	2	1	1	0	+7	+5.0	4
9	Nacional	4	1	1	2	+0	-3.3	4
10	Moreirense	3	1	1	1	-3	-3.3	4
11	Guimaraes	3	1	0	2	-1	+4.7	3
12	Rio Ave	4	1	0	3	-5	-4.5	3
13	Famalicao	4	0	2	2	-2	-0.9	2
14	Alverca	4	0	2	2	-4	-3.1	2
15	Academico Viseu	4	0	2	2	-4	-3.2	2
16	Estoril	3	0	1	2	-4	-1.1	1
17	Casa Pia	4	0	0	4	-11	-3.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arouca	2	2	0	0	+5	+2.7	6
2	Porto	2	2	0	0	+4	+3.4	6
3	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.6	6
4	Gil Vicente	2	2	0	0	+3	+2.5	6
5	Santa Clara	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.8	4
6	Maritimo	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.2	4
7	Nacional	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.1	3
8	Guimaraes	2	1	0	1	+0	+4.6	3
9	Alverca	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.4	2
10	Benfica	1	0	1	0	+0	+2.4	1
11	Moreirense	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
12	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.5	1
13	Famalicao	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.0	1
14	Estoril	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.0	1
15	Academico Viseu	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.4	0
16	Rio Ave	2	0	0	2	-6	-2.5	0
17	Casa Pia	2	0	0	2	-8	-2.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	2	2	0	0	+5	+2.0	6
2	Sp Lisbon	2	1	1	0	+4	+2.7	4
3	Estrela	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.7	4
4	Santa Clara	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.7	4
5	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+7	+2.7	3
6	Rio Ave	2	1	0	1	+1	-1.9	3
7	Maritimo	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.0	3
8	Arouca	2	1	0	1	-1	-4.2	3
9	Moreirense	2	1	0	1	-3	-2.2	3
10	Academico Viseu	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.8	2
11	Gil Vicente	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
12	Nacional	2	0	1	1	-1	-3.2	1
13	Famalicao	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.1	1
14	Guimaraes	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.1	0
15	Estoril	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.2	0
16	Casa Pia	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.7	0
17	Alverca	2	0	0	2	-4	-2.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.