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Primeira Liga
Referee: Miguel Nogueira
Guimaraes
S S T T T
0–1
Full-time
Arouca
S T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Guimaraes Arouca
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,2
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
17%
67%
Both score Ø 50%
33%
67%
Average goals
2,3
2,8
Scored
0,8
1,7
Conceded
1,5
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,7
+0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,28 xG 0,43
58% Possession 42%
24 Shots 4
3 Shots on target 2
7 Blocked shots 1
1 Goalkeeper saves 3
5 Corners 2
1 Offside 3
9 Free kicks against 7
2 Yellow cards 5
0 Red cards 1

Recent head-to-head meetings

7. Feb -26 Arouca – Guimaraes 3–2 30. Aug -25 Guimaraes – Arouca 1–1 18. Jan -25 Guimaraes – Arouca 2–2 12. Aug -24 Arouca – Guimaraes 0–1 18. May -24 Arouca – Guimaraes 1–3

Match report

Guimaraes Arouca
Half-time 0–1
53′
⚽ I. Barbero 0–1
N. Djouahra
64′
🟨 Hyun-ju Lee
65′
🔁 O. Lebedenko
↦ M. Flores
65′
🔁 D. Nandin
↦ I. Barbero
Oumar Camara 🟨
69′
T. Strata 🔁
↦ Maga
69′
T. Arcanjo 🔁
↦ O. Camara
70′
70′
🔁 Pedro Santos
↦ E. van Ee
70′
🔁 P. Gozalbez
↦ H. Lee
73′
🔁 D. Monteiro
↦ J. Sanchez
M. Mitrovic 🔁
↦ G. Nogueira
78′
M. Nogueira 🔁
↦ A. Ndoye
78′
90′
🟨 Diogo Monteiro
92′
🟨 Orest Lebedenko
93′
🟨 Diogo Monteiro
93′
🟥 Diogo Monteiro
94′
🟨 Ignacio de Arruabarrena
Matija Mitrović 🟨
96′
L. Doucet 🔁
↦ Gustavo
96′
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Guimaraes

4-2-3-1
48 O. Zych G
2 Maga D
4 O. Rivas Viondi D
28 Thiago Balieiro D
13 J. I. Mendes D
16 Beni M
8 G. Nogueira M
11 Gustavo M
20 Samu M
7 O. Camara M
24 A. Ndoye F
Bench (10)
22 J. Castillo
98 Lucas Furtado
18 T. Arcanjo
44 L. Doucet
56 S. Verdi
82 F. Dias
5 A. Sidibe
6 M. Mitrovic
23 T. Strata
17 M. Nogueira

Coach: Tiago Margarido

Arouca

4-2-3-1
12 I. De Arruabarrena G
28 Tiago Esgaio D
15 J. Sanchez D
3 J. Fontan D
21 M. Flores D
6 E. van Ee M
8 T. Fukui M
19 A. Trezza M
14 H. Lee M
7 N. Djouahra M
17 I. Barbero F
Bench (12)
1 J. Vinarcik
71 M. Duarte
5 B. Popovic
89 Pedro Santos
9 F. Mayulu
24 B. Mansilla
37 M. Climent
18 O. Lebedenko
10 P. Gozalbez
23 D. Nandin
4 D. Monteiro
77 S. Park

Coach: Vasco Seabra

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
1,90
🔒
U
3,47
🔒
B ✓
3,83
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
1,87
🔒
U2,5 ✓
1,84
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Miguel Nogueira · 80 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,6 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
26,9 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,26 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.