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Serie A

Referee: Daniele Doveri

Atalanta

T U U S S

1–0

Full-time

Bologna

U S S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Atalanta Bologna

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,0

2,5

Scored

1,2

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 50%

100%

Points per game

3,0

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

3,0

1,0

Scored

2,0

0,0

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,15 xG 1,05

42% Possession 58%

6 Shots 16

2 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

1 Corners 2

0 Offside 4

10 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Atalanta 10. · Bologna 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Roma	2	2	0	0	+8	+5.3	6
2	Inter	2	2	0	0	+4	+3.0	6
3	Milan	2	2	0	0	+3	+2.3	6
4	Juventus	2	2	0	0	+3	+3.1	6
5	Lazio	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.0	6
6	Udinese	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.1	4
7	Como	2	1	1	0	+1	-1.0	4
8	Frosinone	2	1	0	1	+2	-2.8	3
9	Napoli	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.4	3
10	Atalanta	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.8	3
11	Sassuolo	2	1	0	1	+0	+2.4	3
12	Cagliari	2	1	0	1	+0	-3.0	3
13	Lecce	2	1	0	1	-2	-2.0	3
14	Bologna	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.1	0
15	Torino	2	0	0	2	-2	-1.5	0
16	Parma	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.5	0
17	Genoa	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.3	0
18	Monza	2	0	0	2	-4	+0.9	0
19	Venezia	2	0	0	2	-4	-2.1	0
20	Fiorentina	2	0	0	2	-7	-1.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Roma	1	1	0	0	+4	+2.7	3
2	Inter	1	1	0	0	+3	-0.2	3
3	Juventus	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.3	3
4	Milan	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.4	3
5	Atalanta	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.8	3
6	Sassuolo	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.6	3
7	Lazio	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.2	3
8	Udinese	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
9	Monza	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.7	0
10	Napoli	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.3	0
11	Torino	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
12	Parma	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
13	Cagliari	1	0	0	1	-1	-3.2	0
14	Bologna	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.1	0
15	Frosinone	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.8	0
16	Genoa	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.1	0
17	Venezia	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.7	0
18	Fiorentina	1	0	0	1	-3	+1.0	0
19	Lecce	1	0	0	1	-4	-2.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Como	2	1	1	0	+1	-1.0	4
2	Roma	1	1	0	0	+4	+2.6	3
3	Frosinone	1	1	0	0	+3	-1.0	3
4	Napoli	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.1	3
5	Lecce	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.7	3
6	Udinese	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.7	3
7	Milan	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.9	3
8	Cagliari	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
9	Inter	1	1	0	0	+1	+3.2	3
10	Lazio	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.1	3
11	Juventus	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.8	3
12	Sassuolo	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.8	0
13	Torino	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.6	0
14	Genoa	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.2	0
15	Parma	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.3	0
16	Venezia	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.4	0
17	Monza	1	0	0	1	-3	+0.2	0
18	Fiorentina	1	0	0	1	-4	-2.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.