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Primeira Liga

Referee: Fábio Veríssimo

Guimaraes

U T T S T

2–3

Full-time

Sp Braga

T S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Guimaraes Sp Braga

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,2

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,7

4,3

Scored

1,0

2,2

Conceded

1,7

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 60%

56%

63%

Points per game

1,9

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

53%

72%

Both score Ø 61%

53%

69%

Average goals

2,5

3,6

Scored

1,5

2,1

Conceded

1,1

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,80 xG 2,10

47% Possession 53%

12 Shots 14

4 Shots on target 8

6 Blocked shots 2

6 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 8

1 Offside 3

13 Free kicks against 15

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Guimaraes 5. · Sp Braga 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	33	28	3	2	+64	+43.3	87
2	Benfica	32	24	4	4	+44	+38.1	76
3	Porto	32	20	6	6	+34	+29.8	66
4	Sp Braga	32	20	5	7	+21	+19.4	65
5	Guimaraes	32	18	6	8	+13	+6.7	60
6	Moreirense	32	14	7	11	-1	+0.1	49
7	Arouca	32	13	7	12	+11	+2.3	46
8	Famalicao	33	10	12	11	-3	-10.1	42
9	Farense	32	10	7	15	-1	-9.3	37
10	Rio Ave	33	6	18	9	-5	-0.9	36
11	Casa Pia	32	9	8	15	-12	-11.2	35
12	Estoril	33	9	6	18	-8	-13.8	33
13	Gil Vicente	32	8	9	15	-11	-10.4	33
14	Boavista	32	7	10	15	-22	-17.8	31
15	Estrela	33	6	12	15	-21	-10.1	30
16	Portimonense	33	7	8	18	-35	-24.3	29
17	Vizela	33	5	10	18	-30	-10.7	25
18	Chaves	33	5	8	20	-38	-21.2	23

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	16	16	0	0	+43	+28.9	48
2	Benfica	16	14	2	0	+36	+27.7	44
3	Guimaraes	16	11	2	3	+14	+11.3	35
4	Porto	16	10	4	2	+21	+22.5	34
5	Sp Braga	16	10	3	3	+14	+19.9	33
6	Estoril	17	8	1	8	+7	-1.4	25
7	Rio Ave	16	6	7	3	+5	+6.4	25
8	Moreirense	16	7	4	5	+1	+1.6	25
9	Arouca	16	7	3	6	+2	+0.7	24
10	Famalicao	16	6	6	4	+1	-3.7	24
11	Gil Vicente	16	5	7	4	+4	-5.4	22
12	Farense	16	6	4	6	+3	+0.9	22
13	Boavista	16	4	7	5	-9	-3.9	19
14	Estrela	16	5	3	8	-6	-1.7	18
15	Portimonense	17	3	6	8	-13	-9.2	15
16	Casa Pia	16	3	5	8	-7	-4.4	14
17	Vizela	17	3	5	9	-12	+1.8	14
18	Chaves	17	3	4	10	-16	-7.1	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	17	12	3	2	+21	+14.4	39
2	Porto	16	10	2	4	+13	+7.4	32
3	Benfica	16	10	2	4	+8	+10.4	32
4	Sp Braga	16	10	2	4	+7	-0.4	32
5	Guimaraes	16	7	4	5	-1	-4.6	25
6	Moreirense	16	7	3	6	-2	-1.5	24
7	Arouca	16	6	4	6	+9	+1.6	22
8	Casa Pia	16	6	3	7	-5	-6.8	21
9	Famalicao	17	4	6	7	-4	-6.4	18
10	Farense	16	4	3	9	-4	-10.2	15
11	Portimonense	16	4	2	10	-22	-15.1	14
12	Boavista	16	3	3	10	-13	-13.9	12
13	Estrela	17	1	9	7	-15	-8.4	12
14	Rio Ave	17	0	11	6	-10	-7.3	11
15	Gil Vicente	16	3	2	11	-15	-5.0	11
16	Vizela	16	2	5	9	-18	-12.6	11
17	Chaves	16	2	4	10	-22	-14.2	10
18	Estoril	16	1	5	10	-15	-12.5	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.