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Champions League
Referee: M Oliver
Paris SG
U S S T T
0–1
Full-time
Bayern Munich
U U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paris SG Bayern Munich
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,7
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
83%
50%
Both score Ø 75%
83%
67%
Average goals
3,8
3,2
Scored
2,5
2,3
Conceded
1,3
0,8
Goal diff per game
+1,2
+1,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 84%
67%
100%
Points per game
2,3
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
100%
17%
Average goals
3,8
3,3
Scored
2,7
3,0
Conceded
1,2
0,3
Goal diff per game
+1,5
+2,7
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,83 xG 1,41
46% Possession 54%
9 Shots 18
4 Shots on target 7
4 Blocked shots 4
6 Goalkeeper saves 4
4 Corners 5
5 Offside 3
8 Free kicks against 18
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 1

Match report

Paris SG Bayern Munich
26′
🟨 Benjamin Pavard
Half-time 0–0
P. Kimpembe 🔁
↦ A. Hakimi
46′
46′
🔁 A. Davies
↦ João Cancelo
53′
K. Coman 0–1
A. Davies
K. Mbappé 🔁
↦ Carlos Soler
57′
Fabián Ruiz 🔁
↦ W. Zaïre-Emery
57′
Presnel Kimpembe 🟨
70′
Vitinha 🔁
↦ Danilo Pereira
75′
75′
🔁 S. Gnabry
↦ K. Coman
76′
🔁 T. Müller
↦ E. Choupo-Moting
Kylian Mbappé ℹ️
VAR: Goal cancelled
83′
Neymar 🟨
86′
87′
🔁 R. Gravenberch
↦ J. Musiala
90′
🔁 J. Stanišić
↦ L. Sané
92′
🟨 Benjamin Pavard
92′
🟥 Benjamin Pavard
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Paris SG

4-4-2
99 G. Donnarumma G
2 A. Hakimi D
5 Marquinhos D
4 Sergio Ramos D
25 Nuno Mendes D
33 W. Zaïre-Emery M
6 M. Verratti M
15 Danilo Pereira M
28 Carlos Soler M
30 L. Messi F
10 Neymar F
Bench (11)
3 P. Kimpembe
7 K. Mbappé
8 Fabián Ruiz
17 Vitinha
90 A. Letellier
16 Sergio Rico
35 Ismaël Gharbi
44 H. Ekitike
29 T. Pembélé
14 Juan Bernat
31 E. Bitshiabu

Coach: C. Galtier

Bayern Munich

3-4-2-1
27 Y. Sommer G
5 B. Pavard D
2 D. Upamecano D
4 M. de Ligt D
22 João Cancelo M
6 J. Kimmich M
8 L. Goretzka M
11 K. Coman M
10 L. Sané F
42 J. Musiala F
13 E. Choupo-Moting F
Bench (11)
19 A. Davies
7 S. Gnabry
25 T. Müller
38 R. Gravenberch
44 J. Stanišić
35 J. Schenk
39 M. Tel
23 D. Blind
46 A. Ibrahimović
26 S. Ulreich
20 B. Sarr

Coach: J. Nagelsmann

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

M Oliver · 207 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,6 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
22,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,14 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.