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DFB-Pokal

Referee: D Aytekin

Mainz

T U U T S

0–4

Full-time

Bayern Munich

S S U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Bayern Munich

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,0

3,3

Scored

1,3

2,3

Conceded

1,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — DFB-Pokal · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

3,0

6,0

Scored

3,0

5,0

Conceded

0,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

+3,0

+4,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–3

32% Possession 68%

11 Shots 21

1 Shots on target 9

5 Blocked shots 5

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 6

0 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 6

3 Yellow cards 1

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 6. · Bayern Munich 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	3	3	0	0	+14	9
2	Stuttgart	3	3	0	0	+8	9
3	Union Berlin	3	3	0	0	+4	9
4	Bayern Munich	2	2	0	0	+8	6
5	Fortuna Dusseldorf	2	2	0	0	+6	6
6	Mainz	2	2	0	0	+6	6
7	Ein Frankfurt	2	2	0	0	+6	6
8	Dortmund	2	2	0	0	+5	6
9	Hoffenheim	3	2	0	1	+4	6
10	Darmstadt	2	2	0	0	+4	6
11	Bochum	2	2	0	0	+4	6
12	Nurnberg	2	2	0	0	+3	6
13	Freiburg	2	2	0	0	+2	6
14	Wolfsburg	3	2	0	1	+1	6
15	Paderborn	3	1	1	1	+9	4
16	Karlsruhe	2	1	1	0	+8	4
17	Sandhausen	2	1	1	0	+4	4
18	Werder Bremen	2	1	1	0	+1	4
19	M'gladbach	2	1	0	1	+7	3
20	Augsburg	2	1	0	1	+1	3
21	Schalke 04	2	1	0	1	+1	3
22	Hannover	2	1	0	1	+1	3
23	Bielefeld	2	1	0	1	+0	3
24	St Pauli	2	1	0	1	+0	3
25	Elversberg	2	1	0	1	+0	3
26	Heidenheim	2	1	0	1	+0	3
27	Stuttgarter Kickers	2	1	0	1	+0	3
28	Hamburg	2	1	0	1	-2	3
29	VfB Lubeck	2	1	0	1	-2	3
30	Hertha	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	FC Koln	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Holstein Kiel	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	Braunschweig	2	0	1	1	-1	1
34	Waldhof Mannheim	2	0	1	1	-1	1
35	Regensburg	2	0	1	1	-3	1
36	Leverkusen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	Straelen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	Kaiserslautern	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Cottbus	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Chemnitzer FC	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Dresden	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Hansa Rostock	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Carl Zeiss Jena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Bayreuth	1	0	0	1	-2	0
45	Kaan-Marienborn	1	0	0	1	-2	0
46	Illertissen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
47	Greuther Furth	1	0	0	1	-2	0
48	SV Rodinghausen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
49	Kickers Offenbach	1	0	0	1	-3	0
50	FC Ingolstadt 04	1	0	0	1	-3	0
51	Erzgebirge Aue	1	0	0	1	-3	0
52	TSV 1860 Munich	1	0	0	1	-3	0
53	Viktoria Berlin	1	0	0	1	-3	0
54	Schott Mainz	1	0	0	1	-3	0
55	Magdeburg	1	0	0	1	-4	0
56	Schwarz-Weiß Rehden	1	0	0	1	-4	0
57	BW Lohne	1	0	0	1	-4	0
58	Bremer Sv	1	0	0	1	-5	0
59	FC Viktoria Koln	1	0	0	1	-5	0
60	FV Engers 07	1	0	0	1	-6	0
61	Oberachern	1	0	0	1	-8	0
62	Neustrelitz	1	0	0	1	-8	0
63	Teutonia Ottensen	1	0	0	1	-8	0
64	Einheit Wernigerode	1	0	0	1	-10	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	2	2	0	0	+6	6
2	Union Berlin	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Stuttgart	1	1	0	0	+6	3
4	Hoffenheim	1	1	0	0	+4	3
5	Freiburg	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Darmstadt	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Elversberg	2	1	0	1	+0	3
8	Stuttgarter Kickers	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	VfB Lubeck	2	1	0	1	-2	3
10	Sandhausen	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Braunschweig	2	0	1	1	-1	1
12	Paderborn	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	Waldhof Mannheim	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Regensburg	2	0	1	1	-3	1
15	Straelen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	Kaiserslautern	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Cottbus	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Chemnitzer FC	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Dresden	1	0	0	1	-1	0
20	Carl Zeiss Jena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	Bayreuth	1	0	0	1	-2	0
22	Hannover	1	0	0	1	-2	0
23	Kaan-Marienborn	1	0	0	1	-2	0
24	Illertissen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
25	SV Rodinghausen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
26	Augsburg	1	0	0	1	-3	0
27	Kickers Offenbach	1	0	0	1	-3	0
28	FC Ingolstadt 04	1	0	0	1	-3	0
29	Erzgebirge Aue	1	0	0	1	-3	0
30	TSV 1860 Munich	1	0	0	1	-3	0
31	Viktoria Berlin	1	0	0	1	-3	0
32	Schott Mainz	1	0	0	1	-3	0
33	Magdeburg	1	0	0	1	-4	0
34	Schwarz-Weiß Rehden	1	0	0	1	-4	0
35	BW Lohne	1	0	0	1	-4	0
36	Bremer Sv	1	0	0	1	-5	0
37	FC Viktoria Koln	1	0	0	1	-5	0
38	FV Engers 07	1	0	0	1	-6	0
39	Oberachern	1	0	0	1	-8	0
40	Neustrelitz	1	0	0	1	-8	0
41	Teutonia Ottensen	1	0	0	1	-8	0
42	Einheit Wernigerode	1	0	0	1	-10	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	2	2	0	0	+8	6
2	Fortuna Dusseldorf	2	2	0	0	+6	6
3	Mainz	2	2	0	0	+6	6
4	Ein Frankfurt	2	2	0	0	+6	6
5	Dortmund	2	2	0	0	+5	6
6	Bochum	2	2	0	0	+4	6
7	Nurnberg	2	2	0	0	+3	6
8	Stuttgart	2	2	0	0	+2	6
9	Wolfsburg	3	2	0	1	+1	6
10	Karlsruhe	2	1	1	0	+8	4
11	Werder Bremen	2	1	1	0	+1	4
12	Paderborn	1	1	0	0	+10	3
13	RB Leipzig	1	1	0	0	+8	3
14	M'gladbach	2	1	0	1	+7	3
15	Sandhausen	1	1	0	0	+4	3
16	Augsburg	1	1	0	0	+4	3
17	Darmstadt	1	1	0	0	+3	3
18	Hannover	1	1	0	0	+3	3
19	Schalke 04	2	1	0	1	+1	3
20	Freiburg	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	Union Berlin	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Bielefeld	2	1	0	1	+0	3
23	St Pauli	2	1	0	1	+0	3
24	Hoffenheim	2	1	0	1	+0	3
25	Heidenheim	2	1	0	1	+0	3
26	Hamburg	2	1	0	1	-2	3
27	Hertha	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	FC Koln	1	0	1	0	+0	1
29	Holstein Kiel	1	0	1	0	+0	1
30	Leverkusen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
31	Hansa Rostock	1	0	0	1	-1	0
32	Greuther Furth	1	0	0	1	-2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.