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Championship

Referee: L Doughty

Burnley

S U S S S

1–1

Full-time

Watford

S U T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Burnley Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,2

2,3

Scored

1,8

1,0

Conceded

0,3

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-0,3

This season — Championship · 30/31 matches

Win Ø 53%

67%

39%

Points per game

2,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

53%

39%

Both score Ø 50%

57%

42%

Average goals

2,9

2,3

Scored

2,0

1,2

Conceded

0,9

1,1

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

69% Possession 31%

14 Shots 4

5 Shots on target 1

4 Blocked shots 0

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 1

1 Offside 3

14 Free kicks against 15

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Burnley 1. · Watford 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	30	20	8	2	+35	68
2	Sheffield United	30	18	7	5	+27	61
3	Middlesbrough	30	15	6	9	+15	51
4	Sunderland	30	13	8	9	+13	47
5	Luton	28	13	8	7	+8	47
6	Millwall	30	13	7	10	+6	46
7	Watford	31	12	10	9	+3	46
8	Norwich	31	13	6	12	+7	45
9	Blackburn	30	14	3	13	-4	45
10	West Brom	30	12	8	10	+7	44
11	Hull	32	11	8	13	-9	41
12	Preston	30	11	7	12	-9	40
13	Bristol City	30	10	9	11	+1	39
14	Swansea	30	10	9	11	-2	39
15	QPR	32	10	9	13	-10	39
16	Coventry	29	10	8	11	-1	38
17	Birmingham	31	10	8	13	-4	38
18	Reading	30	11	5	14	-12	38
19	Stoke	30	9	7	14	-5	34
20	Rotherham	30	7	12	11	-7	33
21	Cardiff	32	8	8	16	-12	32
22	Wigan	30	7	8	15	-21	29
23	Huddersfield	30	7	7	16	-11	28
24	Blackpool	30	6	10	14	-15	28

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	16	12	4	0	+23	40
2	Sheffield United	15	10	3	2	+20	33
3	Middlesbrough	15	8	5	2	+11	29
4	Millwall	14	8	4	2	+12	28
5	Blackburn	14	9	1	4	+7	28
6	Reading	14	8	3	3	+6	27
7	Watford	15	7	4	4	+7	25
8	West Brom	15	7	4	4	+7	25
9	Coventry	15	7	4	4	+5	25
10	Sunderland	15	6	4	5	+4	22
11	Bristol City	16	6	4	6	+3	22
12	Norwich	16	6	4	6	+2	22
13	Luton	14	5	6	3	+4	21
14	Hull	16	6	3	7	-5	21
15	Rotherham	14	5	5	4	+7	20
16	Swansea	14	6	2	6	+3	20
17	Birmingham	17	5	5	7	+0	20
18	QPR	16	5	4	7	-5	19
19	Huddersfield	15	5	3	7	-1	18
20	Cardiff	16	4	5	7	-4	17
21	Stoke	15	4	4	7	-1	16
22	Blackpool	15	3	5	7	-5	14
23	Preston	15	3	4	8	-11	13
24	Wigan	16	3	3	10	-18	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	14	8	4	2	+12	28
2	Sheffield United	15	8	4	3	+7	28
3	Preston	15	8	3	4	+2	27
4	Luton	14	8	2	4	+4	26
5	Sunderland	15	7	4	4	+9	25
6	Norwich	15	7	2	6	+5	23
7	Middlesbrough	15	7	1	7	+4	22
8	Watford	16	5	6	5	-4	21
9	Hull	16	5	5	6	-4	20
10	QPR	16	5	5	6	-5	20
11	West Brom	15	5	4	6	+0	19
12	Swansea	16	4	7	5	-5	19
13	Stoke	15	5	3	7	-4	18
14	Birmingham	14	5	3	6	-4	18
15	Millwall	16	5	3	8	-6	18
16	Bristol City	14	4	5	5	-2	17
17	Wigan	14	4	5	5	-3	17
18	Blackburn	16	5	2	9	-11	17
19	Cardiff	16	4	3	9	-8	15
20	Blackpool	15	3	5	7	-10	14
21	Coventry	14	3	4	7	-6	13
22	Rotherham	16	2	7	7	-14	13
23	Reading	16	3	2	11	-18	11
24	Huddersfield	15	2	4	9	-10	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.