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Ligue 1

Referee: J Pignard

Montpellier

T T T T S

1–3

Full-time

Paris SG

S S T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Montpellier Paris SG

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,3

Scored

1,2

2,3

Conceded

2,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+1,3

This season — Ligue 1 · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 53%

30%

75%

Points per game

1,0

2,4

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

65%

60%

Both score Ø 53%

60%

45%

Average goals

3,5

3,2

Scored

1,5

2,5

Conceded

2,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+1,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,50 xG 4,37

34% Possession 66%

6 Shots 19

3 Shots on target 8

0 Blocked shots 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

1 Corners 3

3 Offside 4

9 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Montpellier 14. · Paris SG 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	20	15	3	2	+34	-0.8	48
2	Marseille	21	14	4	3	+25	+0.3	46
3	Lens	20	13	6	1	+19	+1.7	45
4	Monaco	20	11	5	4	+16	+0.1	38
5	Rennes	20	11	4	5	+15	+0.6	37
6	Lille	21	10	5	6	+9	+0.5	35
7	Lorient	21	10	5	6	+1	-4.2	35
8	Clermont	21	8	6	7	-3	+0.7	30
9	Reims	21	6	11	4	+0	+4.4	29
10	Toulouse	21	8	5	8	-1	+1.3	29
11	Lyon	20	8	4	8	+7	+0.2	28
12	Nice	20	7	7	6	+3	-0.3	28
13	Nantes	21	4	10	7	-5	-1.3	22
14	Montpellier	20	6	2	12	-10	-1.1	20
15	Troyes	21	4	7	10	-13	-2.7	19
16	Brest	20	4	6	10	-11	+0.9	18
17	Ajaccio	21	5	3	13	-19	+0.8	18
18	Strasbourg	20	2	9	9	-11	-0.2	15
19	Auxerre	20	3	4	13	-27	+1.1	13
20	Angers	21	2	2	17	-29	-1.9	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	10	10	0	0	+15	–	30
2	Rennes	10	9	0	1	+17	–	27
3	Paris SG	10	8	2	0	+15	-0.8	26
4	Marseille	11	7	2	2	+12	-0.1	23
5	Lille	11	6	3	2	+4	+0.1	21
6	Toulouse	11	5	4	2	+4	+1.1	19
7	Lyon	10	5	2	3	+8	–	17
8	Monaco	10	5	2	3	+7	–	17
9	Lorient	10	5	2	3	+2	-0.6	17
10	Reims	10	4	4	2	+1	+3.6	16
11	Nice	10	4	3	3	+3	-0.3	15
12	Nantes	10	3	5	2	+1	-0.4	14
13	Clermont	10	4	2	4	-6	+0.9	14
14	Troyes	10	1	7	2	-3	-1.7	10
15	Montpellier	10	3	1	6	-6	–	10
16	Brest	10	2	4	4	-6	+0.9	10
17	Auxerre	10	2	3	5	-10	+1.1	9
18	Ajaccio	10	2	1	7	-9	-0.2	7
19	Strasbourg	11	0	6	5	-8	-0.2	6
20	Angers	11	1	1	9	-12	-1.0	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	10	7	2	1	+13	+0.4	23
2	Paris SG	10	7	1	2	+19	–	22
3	Monaco	10	6	3	1	+9	+0.1	21
4	Lorient	11	5	3	3	-1	-3.6	18
5	Clermont	11	4	4	3	+3	-0.1	16
6	Lens	10	3	6	1	+4	+1.7	15
7	Lille	10	4	2	4	+5	+0.3	14
8	Nice	10	3	4	3	+0	–	13
9	Reims	11	2	7	2	-1	+0.8	13
10	Lyon	10	3	2	5	-1	+0.2	11
11	Ajaccio	11	3	2	6	-10	+1.0	11
12	Rennes	10	2	4	4	-2	+0.6	10
13	Montpellier	10	3	1	6	-4	-1.1	10
14	Toulouse	10	3	1	6	-5	+0.2	10
15	Strasbourg	9	2	3	4	-3	–	9
16	Troyes	11	3	0	8	-10	-1.1	9
17	Brest	10	2	2	6	-5	–	8
18	Nantes	11	1	5	5	-6	-0.9	8
19	Auxerre	10	1	1	8	-17	–	4
20	Angers	10	1	1	8	-17	-0.9	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.