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Champions League
Referee: D Makkelie
Benfica
S T T S S
4–5
Full-time
Barcelona
T T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Benfica Barcelona
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
67%
50%
Points per game
2,0
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 50%
33%
67%
Average goals
2,8
3,5
Scored
2,2
2,3
Conceded
0,7
1,2
Goal diff per game
+1,5
+1,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
50%
83%
Points per game
1,7
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 84%
67%
100%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
2,8
4,7
Scored
1,7
3,5
Conceded
1,2
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+2,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

3,34 xG 3,63
26% Possession 74%
10 Shots 22
5 Shots on target 11
4 Blocked shots 5
6 Goalkeeper saves 2
2 Corners 6
5 Offside 1
9 Free kicks against 9
1 Yellow cards 4
1 Red cards 0

Match report

Benfica Barcelona
Arthur Cabral 🟥
-5′
1–0 V. Pavlidis ⚽
Álvaro Fernández
2′
12′
ℹ️ Alejandro Balde
VAR: Penalty confirmed
13′
⚽ R. Lewandowski 1–1
2–1 V. Pavlidis ⚽
22′
3–1 V. Pavlidis ⚽
30′
36′
🟨 Gavi
Half-time 3–1
L. Barreiro 🔁
↦ F. Aursnes
61′
61′
🔁 F. de Jong
↦ Marc Casadó
62′
🔁 Fermín López
↦ Gavi
64′
⚽ Raphinha 3–2
66′
🟨 Jules Koundé
3–3 R. Araujo ⚽
own goal
68′
A. Bah 🔁
↦ K. Aktürkoğlu
71′
Á. Di María 🔁
↦ A. Schjelderup
71′
74′
🔁 Ferran Torres
↦ Alejandro Balde
74′
🔁 Eric García
↦ J. Koundé
Álvaro Carreras 🟨
76′
78′
⚽ R. Lewandowski 3–4
B. Rollheiser 🔁
↦ O. Kökçü
80′
Z. Amdouni 🔁
↦ V. Pavlidis
80′
86′
⚽ Eric García 3–5
Pedri
92′
🔁 Gerard Martín
↦ Lamine Yamal
94′
🟨 Frenkie de Jong
96′
⚽ Raphinha 3–6
Ferran Torres
98′
🟨 Fermín López
Full-time 3–6

Line-ups

Benfica

4-3-3
1 A. Trubin G
44 Tomás Araújo D
4 António Silva D
30 N. Otamendi D
3 Álvaro Fernández D
8 F. Aursnes M
61 Florentino M
10 O. Kökçü M
17 K. Aktürkoğlu F
14 V. Pavlidis F
21 A. Schjelderup F
Bench (12)
18 L. Barreiro
6 A. Bah
11 Á. Di María
32 B. Rollheiser
7 Z. Amdouni
84 João Rêgo
24 Samuel Soares
25 G. Prestianni
9 Arthur Cabral
81 A. Bajrami
60 Nuno Félix
37 J. Beste

Coach: Bruno Lage

Barcelona

4-2-3-1
25 W. Szczęsny G
23 J. Koundé D
4 R. Araujo D
2 Pau Cubarsí D
3 Alejandro Balde D
17 Marc Casadó M
8 Pedri M
19 Lamine Yamal M
6 Gavi M
11 Raphinha M
9 R. Lewandowski F
Bench (12)
21 F. de Jong
16 Fermín López
7 Ferran Torres
24 Eric García
35 Gerard Martín
14 Pablo Torre
15 A. Christensen
10 Ansu Fati
13 Iñaki Peña
31 D. Kochen
18 Pau Víctor
32 Héctor Fort

Coach: H. Flick

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

D Makkelie · 193 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,3 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
21,5 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.