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Champions League
Referee: D Massa
Ath Madrid
S S S S T
2–1
Full-time
Leverkusen
S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Madrid Leverkusen
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 92%
83%
100%
Points per game
2,5
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
33%
50%
Both score Ø 34%
17%
50%
Average goals
1,8
3,2
Scored
1,5
2,5
Conceded
0,3
0,7
Goal diff per game
+1,2
+1,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
67%
67%
Points per game
2,0
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
100%
50%
Both score Ø 42%
67%
17%
Average goals
4,0
2,8
Scored
2,3
2,0
Conceded
1,7
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+1,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,77 xG 0,84
30% Possession 70%
5 Shots 13
2 Shots on target 4
0 Blocked shots 3
3 Goalkeeper saves 0
3 Corners 4
0 Offside 3
7 Free kicks against 14
2 Yellow cards 4
1 Red cards 1

Recent head-to-head meetings

26. Oct -22 Ath Madrid – Leverkusen 2–2 13. Sep -22 Leverkusen – Ath Madrid 2–0

Match report

Ath Madrid Leverkusen
Pablo Barrios ℹ️
VAR: Card upgrade
24′
Pablo Barrios 🟥
25′
44′
🟨 Florian Wirtz
Half-time 0–1
46′
⚽ P. Hincapié 0–1
N. Mukiele
Reinildo 🔁
↦ Javi Galán
46′
46′
🔁 P. Schick
↦ N. Mukiele
José María Giménez 🟨
47′
47′
🟨 Nathan Tella
49′
🟨 Piero Hincapié
1–1 J. Alvarez ⚽
52′
Giuliano Simeone 🟨
66′
68′
🔁 J. Hofmann
↦ N. Tella
76′
🟨 Piero Hincapié
76′
🟥 Piero Hincapié
82′
🔁 Arthur
↦ J. Frimpong
Samuel Lino 🔁
↦ G. Simeone
87′
Á. Correa 🔁
↦ A. Griezmann
87′
89′
🔁 Aleix García
↦ F. Wirtz
2–1 J. Alvarez ⚽
Á. Correa
90′
Robin Le Normand 🔁
↦ J. Alvarez
92′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Ath Madrid

5-4-1
13 J. Oblak G
22 G. Simeone D
16 N. Molina D
2 J. Giménez D
15 C. Lenglet D
21 Javi Galán D
14 Marcos Llorente M
5 R. De Paul M
8 Pablo Barrios M
7 A. Griezmann M
19 J. Alvarez F
Bench (12)
23 Reinildo
12 Samuel Lino
10 Á. Correa
24 Robin Le Normand
20 A. Witsel
11 T. Lemar
17 Rodrigo Riquelme
4 C. Gallagher
31 Antonio Gomis
3 César Azpilicueta
1 J. Musso
6 Koke

Coach: D. Simeone

Leverkusen

4-2-3-1
17 M. Kovář G
23 N. Mukiele D
4 J. Tah D
12 E. Tapsoba D
3 P. Hincapié D
34 G. Xhaka M
25 E. Palacios M
30 J. Frimpong M
10 F. Wirtz M
20 Álex Grimaldo M
19 N. Tella F
Bench (11)
14 P. Schick
7 J. Hofmann
13 Arthur
24 Aleix García
36 N. Lomb
22 V. Boniface
28 B. Hawighorst
40 F. Onyeka
29 A. Stepanov
8 R. Andrich
1 L. Hrádecký

Coach: Xabi Alonso

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

D Massa · 154 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,9 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
26,2 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,27 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.