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La Liga

Referee: Ricardo De Burgos

Barcelona

T S U S T

1–2

Full-time

Ath Madrid

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Barcelona Ath Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

50%

100%

Points per game

1,7

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,7

4,5

Scored

2,3

3,7

Conceded

1,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+2,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 18/17 matches

Win Ø 66%

67%

65%

Points per game

2,1

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

83%

41%

Both score Ø 54%

67%

41%

Average goals

3,9

2,5

Scored

2,8

1,8

Conceded

1,1

0,6

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,54 xG 0,63

63% Possession 37%

19 Shots 5

7 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 6

11 Corners 3

2 Offside 4

11 Free kicks against 8

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Barcelona 1. · Ath Madrid 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	18	12	2	4	+30	+19.7	38
2	Ath Madrid	17	11	5	1	+20	+17.1	38
3	Real Madrid	17	11	4	2	+21	+14.7	37
4	Ath Bilbao	19	10	6	3	+12	+7.7	36
5	Mallorca	19	9	3	7	-2	+0.4	30
6	Villarreal	17	7	6	4	+1	+8.0	27
7	Sociedad	18	7	4	7	+3	+3.6	25
8	Girona	18	7	4	7	+1	+6.1	25
9	Osasuna	18	6	7	5	-4	-6.0	25
10	Celta	18	7	3	8	-1	+5.8	24
11	Betis	17	6	6	5	-1	+4.4	24
12	Sevilla	17	6	4	7	-5	-4.5	22
13	Vallecano	17	5	6	6	-1	-0.1	21
14	Las Palmas	17	5	4	8	-5	-15.0	19
15	Leganes	17	4	6	7	-8	-15.3	18
16	Getafe	18	3	7	8	-4	-3.4	16
17	Alaves	17	4	4	9	-9	-5.4	16
18	Espanol	17	4	3	10	-13	-14.2	15
19	Valladolid	18	3	3	12	-25	-15.8	12
20	Valencia	16	2	5	9	-10	-7.8	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	9	7	2	0	+13	+15.8	23
2	Real Madrid	8	7	0	1	+13	+11.6	21
3	Ath Bilbao	10	6	3	1	+9	+4.4	21
4	Celta	10	6	2	2	+8	+5.6	20
5	Osasuna	10	5	3	2	+4	+2.6	18
6	Girona	9	5	1	3	+5	+7.7	16
7	Sevilla	9	5	1	3	+0	+1.6	16
8	Barcelona	7	5	0	2	+13	+13.3	15
9	Betis	8	4	3	1	+4	+9.9	15
10	Mallorca	10	4	3	3	-2	-3.1	15
11	Getafe	10	3	5	2	+3	+4.0	14
12	Espanol	9	4	2	3	+1	-1.9	14
13	Villarreal	9	3	4	2	+1	+3.1	13
14	Alaves	8	3	3	2	+0	-2.0	12
15	Sociedad	9	3	2	4	+0	+3.7	11
16	Leganes	8	3	1	4	-4	-2.4	10
17	Vallecano	8	2	3	3	-1	+4.5	9
18	Las Palmas	8	2	3	3	-1	-4.6	9
19	Valladolid	9	2	3	4	-6	-6.0	9
20	Valencia	7	2	2	3	+1	-0.2	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	11	7	2	2	+17	+6.4	23
2	Real Madrid	9	4	4	1	+8	+3.0	16
3	Ath Madrid	8	4	3	1	+7	+1.3	15
4	Ath Bilbao	9	4	3	2	+3	+3.3	15
5	Mallorca	9	5	0	4	+0	+3.5	15
6	Sociedad	9	4	2	3	+3	-0.1	14
7	Villarreal	8	4	2	2	+0	+4.9	14
8	Vallecano	9	3	3	3	+0	-4.6	12
9	Las Palmas	9	3	1	5	-4	-10.3	10
10	Girona	9	2	3	4	-4	-1.6	9
11	Betis	9	2	3	4	-5	-5.5	9
12	Leganes	9	1	5	3	-4	-12.9	8
13	Osasuna	8	1	4	3	-8	-8.6	7
14	Sevilla	8	1	3	4	-5	-6.1	6
15	Celta	8	1	1	6	-9	+0.2	4
16	Alaves	9	1	1	7	-9	-3.4	4
17	Valencia	9	0	3	6	-11	-7.5	3
18	Valladolid	9	1	0	8	-19	-9.8	3
19	Getafe	8	0	2	6	-7	-7.4	2
20	Espanol	8	0	1	7	-14	-12.3	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.