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Champions League
Referee: F Letexier
Barcelona
S S U S S
3–1
Full-time
Benfica
U S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Barcelona Benfica
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
83%
67%
Points per game
2,7
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 25%
33%
17%
Average goals
3,5
2,5
Scored
2,7
1,8
Conceded
0,8
0,7
Goal diff per game
+1,8
+1,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 9/11 matches
Win Ø 62%
78%
45%
Points per game
2,4
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 72%
89%
55%
Both score Ø 56%
67%
45%
Average goals
4,7
3,3
Scored
3,2
1,8
Conceded
1,4
1,5
Goal diff per game
+1,8
+0,4
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

2,52 xG 0,74
65% Possession 35%
20 Shots 8
6 Shots on target 2
5 Blocked shots 3
1 Goalkeeper saves 3
1 Corners 6
3 Offside 9
4 Free kicks against 8
0 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

5. Mar -25 Benfica – Barcelona 0–1 21. Jan -25 Benfica – Barcelona 4–5

Match report

Barcelona Benfica
1–0 Raphinha ⚽
Lamine Yamal
11′
13′
⚽ N. Otamendi 1–1
2–1 Lamine Yamal ⚽
Raphinha
27′
Raphinha ℹ️
VAR: Goal confirmed
42′
3–1 Raphinha ⚽
Alejandro Balde
42′
Half-time 3–1
48′
🟨 António Silva
56′
🔁 Renato Sanches
↦ K. Aktürkoğlu
56′
🔁 Z. Amdouni
↦ A. Schjelderup
Gavi 🔁
↦ Dani Olmo
70′
Ferran Torres 🔁
↦ R. Lewandowski
70′
70′
🔁 A. Belotti
↦ O. Kökçü
70′
🔁 L. Barreiro
↦ Florentino
Marc Casadó 🔁
↦ F. de Jong
81′
Fermín López 🔁
↦ Lamine Yamal
82′
84′
🔁 João Rêgo
↦ Tomás Araújo
Eric García 🔁
↦ Iñigo Martínez
87′
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Barcelona

4-2-3-1
25 W. Szczęsny G
23 J. Koundé D
4 R. Araujo D
5 Iñigo Martínez D
3 Alejandro Balde D
21 F. de Jong M
8 Pedri M
19 Lamine Yamal M
20 Dani Olmo M
11 Raphinha M
9 R. Lewandowski F
Bench (12)
6 Gavi
7 Ferran Torres
17 Marc Casadó
16 Fermín López
24 Eric García
32 Héctor Fort
35 Gerard Martín
10 Ansu Fati
13 Iñaki Peña
14 Pablo Torre
31 D. Kochen
18 Pau Víctor

Coach: H. Flick

Benfica

4-3-3
1 A. Trubin G
44 Tomás Araújo D
4 António Silva D
30 N. Otamendi D
26 S. Dahl D
8 F. Aursnes M
61 Florentino M
10 O. Kökçü M
17 K. Aktürkoğlu F
14 V. Pavlidis F
21 A. Schjelderup F
Bench (12)
85 Renato Sanches
7 Z. Amdouni
19 A. Belotti
18 L. Barreiro
84 João Rêgo
24 Samuel Soares
81 A. Bajrami
60 Nuno Félix
64 Gonçalo Oliveira
9 Arthur Cabral
25 G. Prestianni
71 Leandro Santos

Coach: Bruno Lage

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

F Letexier · 176 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,0 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
23,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,25 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.