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Championship

Referee: A Davies

Cardiff

U S T T T

1–2

Full-time

Luton

T U T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cardiff Luton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

2,2

2,0

Scored

0,8

0,3

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 36/36 matches

Win Ø 22%

22%

Points per game

1,0

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

44%

47%

Both score Ø 53%

56%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,5

Scored

1,1

0,9

Conceded

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,77 xG 0,99

58% Possession 42%

12 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 3

2 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Cardiff 21. · Luton 23. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	36	22	10	4	+49	+44.7	76
2	Burnley	36	20	14	2	+39	+12.5	74
3	Sheffield United	34	22	6	6	+22	+12.9	72
4	Sunderland	34	19	10	5	+22	+12.6	67
5	West Brom	36	13	16	7	+14	+8.1	55
6	Coventry	35	16	7	12	+6	+17.6	55
7	Bristol City	35	13	14	8	+8	+7.8	53
8	Blackburn	36	15	7	14	+4	-0.8	52
9	Middlesbrough	36	14	8	14	+8	+12.8	50
10	Norwich	36	12	13	11	+8	+10.0	49
11	Watford	36	14	7	15	-4	-7.8	49
12	Millwall	36	12	12	12	-1	+3.2	48
13	Sheffield Weds	36	13	9	14	-6	-1.4	48
14	QPR	36	11	11	14	-5	-5.1	44
15	Swansea	36	12	8	16	-8	-1.5	44
16	Preston	36	9	16	11	-6	-1.1	43
17	Portsmouth	36	11	9	16	-13	-12.3	42
18	Oxford	36	9	12	15	-16	-20.6	39
19	Hull	36	9	10	17	-9	-5.7	37
20	Stoke	36	8	12	16	-14	-17.8	36
21	Cardiff	36	8	12	16	-20	-15.8	36
22	Derby	36	8	8	20	-14	-8.1	32
23	Luton	36	8	7	21	-27	-9.7	31
24	Plymouth	36	6	12	18	-37	-34.7	30

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	18	14	3	1	+36	+28.0	45
2	Burnley	18	10	8	0	+22	+8.1	38
3	Sunderland	17	11	5	1	+16	+11.2	38
4	Sheffield United	17	12	2	3	+12	+12.7	38
5	West Brom	18	9	7	2	+13	+8.3	34
6	Bristol City	17	9	6	2	+13	+10.2	33
7	Blackburn	18	10	3	5	+10	+5.8	33
8	Coventry	18	10	3	5	+9	+10.1	33
9	Portsmouth	18	9	5	4	+11	+2.1	32
10	Watford	18	10	2	6	+4	-0.7	32
11	Norwich	18	8	7	3	+18	+13.1	31
12	Middlesbrough	18	8	5	5	+6	+7.0	29
13	Oxford	18	8	5	5	+1	-4.3	29
14	Preston	18	6	10	2	+5	+5.1	28
15	Swansea	18	7	5	6	+6	+8.5	26
16	QPR	18	7	5	6	+3	+3.9	26
17	Luton	18	7	5	6	+1	+5.3	26
18	Millwall	18	7	4	7	+2	+5.8	25
19	Plymouth	18	6	7	5	-1	-6.7	25
20	Derby	18	7	3	8	+4	+1.6	24
21	Cardiff	18	7	3	8	-1	-1.9	24
22	Stoke	18	5	8	5	+1	-5.3	23
23	Sheffield Weds	18	5	7	6	+0	+3.6	22
24	Hull	18	3	7	8	-4	+3.3	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Burnley	18	10	6	2	+17	+4.4	36
2	Sheffield United	17	10	4	3	+10	+0.2	34
3	Leeds	18	8	7	3	+13	+16.7	31
4	Sunderland	17	8	5	4	+6	+1.4	29
5	Sheffield Weds	18	8	2	8	-6	-5.0	26
6	Millwall	18	5	8	5	-3	-2.6	23
7	Coventry	17	6	4	7	-3	+7.4	22
8	Middlesbrough	18	6	3	9	+2	+5.8	21
9	West Brom	18	4	9	5	+1	-0.2	21
10	Hull	18	6	3	9	-5	-9.0	21
11	Bristol City	18	4	8	6	-5	-2.3	20
12	Blackburn	18	5	4	9	-6	-6.6	19
13	QPR	18	4	6	8	-8	-9.0	18
14	Norwich	18	4	6	8	-10	-3.1	18
15	Swansea	18	5	3	10	-14	-10.0	18
16	Watford	18	4	5	9	-8	-7.1	17
17	Preston	18	3	6	9	-11	-6.2	15
18	Stoke	18	3	4	11	-15	-12.5	13
19	Cardiff	18	1	9	8	-19	-13.9	12
20	Oxford	18	1	7	10	-17	-16.2	10
21	Portsmouth	18	2	4	12	-24	-14.5	10
22	Derby	18	1	5	12	-18	-9.7	8
23	Luton	18	1	2	15	-28	-15.0	5
24	Plymouth	18	0	5	13	-36	-28.0	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.