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Champions League
Referee: F Letexier
Dortmund
T S S U U
2–3
Full-time
Barcelona
U S T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund Barcelona
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
50%
33%
Points per game
1,8
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
50%
83%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
2,7
3,5
Scored
1,8
2,2
Conceded
0,8
1,3
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 5/5 matches
Win Ø 80%
80%
80%
Points per game
2,4
2,4
Over 2.5 Ø 90%
80%
100%
Both score Ø 50%
40%
60%
Average goals
4,4
4,6
Scored
3,2
3,6
Conceded
1,2
1,0
Goal diff per game
+2,0
+2,6
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,83 xG 2,17
45% Possession 55%
12 Shots 13
2 Shots on target 8
3 Blocked shots 2
5 Goalkeeper saves 0
2 Corners 3
6 Offside 0
9 Free kicks against 10
4 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Dortmund Barcelona
Marcel Sabitzer 🟨
42′
Half-time 0–0
Yan Couto 🔁
↦ J. Ryerson
46′
Felix Nmecha 🟨
51′
53′
⚽ Raphinha 0–1
Dani Olmo
Yan Couto 🟨
57′
58′
🟨 Pau Cubarsí
1–1 S. Guirassy ⚽
60′
Ramy Bensebaini 🟨
61′
71′
🔁 F. de Jong
↦ Raphinha
71′
🔁 Fermín López
↦ Dani Olmo
71′
🔁 Ferran Torres
↦ R. Lewandowski
P. Groß 🔁
↦ G. Reyna
73′
D. Malen 🔁
↦ J. Duranville
73′
75′
⚽ Ferran Torres 1–2
2–2 S. Guirassy ⚽
P. Groß
78′
85′
⚽ Ferran Torres 2–3
Lamine Yamal
90′
🔁 Pau Víctor
↦ Lamine Yamal
92′
🟨 Ferran Torres
93′
🔁 Eric García
↦ Pedri
Full-time 2–3

Line-ups

Dortmund

4-3-3
1 G. Kobel G
26 J. Ryerson D
23 E. Can D
4 N. Schlotterbeck D
5 R. Bensebaini D
20 M. Sabitzer M
8 F. Nmecha M
7 G. Reyna M
16 J. Duranville F
9 S. Guirassy F
43 J. Gittens F
Bench (11)
2 Yan Couto
13 P. Groß
21 D. Malen
35 M. Lotka
27 K. Adeyemi
33 A. Meyer
38 K. Wätjen
37 C. Campbell
47 E. Benkara
42 A. Kabar
46 A. Azhil

Coach: N. Şahin

Barcelona

4-2-3-1
13 Iñaki Peña G
23 J. Koundé D
2 Pau Cubarsí D
5 Iñigo Martínez D
3 Alejandro Balde D
17 Marc Casadó M
8 Pedri M
19 Lamine Yamal M
20 Dani Olmo M
11 Raphinha M
9 R. Lewandowski F
Bench (12)
21 F. de Jong
16 Fermín López
7 Ferran Torres
18 Pau Víctor
24 Eric García
4 R. Araujo
25 W. Szczęsny
35 Gerard Martín
32 Héctor Fort
26 Ander Astralaga
14 Pablo Torre
6 Gavi

Coach: H. Flick

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

F Letexier · 176 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,0 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
23,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,25 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.