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Champions League
Referee: S Scharer
Paris SG
S S T S S
5–4
Full-time
Bayern Munich
S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paris SG Bayern Munich
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 92%
83%
100%
Points per game
2,5
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
67%
83%
Both score Ø 50%
33%
67%
Average goals
2,8
5,0
Scored
2,3
3,5
Conceded
0,5
1,5
Goal diff per game
+1,8
+2,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 14/12 matches
Win Ø 78%
64%
92%
Points per game
2,1
2,8
Over 2.5 Ø 82%
71%
92%
Both score Ø 74%
64%
83%
Average goals
3,9
4,3
Scored
2,7
3,2
Conceded
1,2
1,2
Goal diff per game
+1,5
+2,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–2

1,90 xG 3,06
43% Possession 57%
12 Shots 10
5 Shots on target 8
4 Blocked shots 1
2 Goalkeeper saves 0
2 Corners 5
2 Offside 1
12 Free kicks against 10
3 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

4. Nov -25 Paris SG – Bayern Munich 1–2 26. Nov -24 Bayern Munich – Paris SG 1–0 8. Mar -23 Bayern Munich – Paris SG 2–0 14. Feb -23 Paris SG – Bayern Munich 0–1

Match report

Paris SG Bayern Munich
Marquinhos 🟨
12′
17′
⚽ H. Kane 0–1
1–1 K. Kvaratskhelia ⚽
D. Doue
24′
2–1 J. Neves ⚽
O. Dembele
33′
41′
⚽ M. Olise 2–2
A. Pavlovic
3–2 O. Dembele ⚽
45′
Half-time 3–2
46′
🔁 K. Laimer
↦ A. Davies
Ousmane Dembélé ℹ️
VAR: Penalty confirmed
48′
4–2 K. Kvaratskhelia ⚽
A. Hakimi
56′
5–2 O. Dembele ⚽
D. Doue
58′
F. Ruiz 🔁
↦ W. Zaire-Emery
64′
65′
⚽ D. Upamecano 5–3
J. Kimmich
68′
⚽ L. Diaz 5–4
H. Kane
70′
ℹ️ Luis Díaz
VAR: Goal confirmed
B. Barcola 🔁
↦ D. Doue
70′
Fabián Ruiz 🟨
77′
79′
🔁 L. Goretzka
↦ J. Musiala
Achraf Hakimi 🟨
80′
S. Mayulu 🔁
↦ K. Kvaratskhelia
84′
L. Hernandez 🔁
↦ N. Mendes
84′
93′
🔁 N. Jackson
↦ A. Pavlovic
Full-time 5–4

Line-ups

Paris SG

4-3-3
39 M. Safonov G
2 A. Hakimi D
5 Marquinhos D
51 W. Pacho D
25 N. Mendes D
33 W. Zaire-Emery M
17 Vitinha M
87 J. Neves M
14 D. Doue F
10 O. Dembele F
7 K. Kvaratskhelia F
Bench (12)
30 L. Chevalier
89 R. Marin
8 F. Ruiz
9 G. Ramos
24 S. Mayulu
27 D. Fernandez
21 L. Hernandez
19 Lee Kang-In
6 I. Zabarnyi
29 B. Barcola
4 L. Beraldo
49 I. Mbaye

Coach: Enrique Luis

Bayern Munich

4-2-3-1
1 M. Neuer G
44 J. Stanisic D
2 D. Upamecano D
4 J. Tah D
19 A. Davies D
6 J. Kimmich M
45 A. Pavlovic M
17 M. Olise M
10 J. Musiala M
14 L. Diaz M
9 H. Kane F
Bench (9)
26 S. Ulreich
40 J. Urbig
8 L. Goretzka
27 K. Laimer
11 N. Jackson
3 Kim Min-Jae
21 H. Ito
34 D. Ofli
43 F. Pavic

Coach: Vincent Kompany

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

S Scharer · 132 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,5 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
24,6 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,24 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.