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Champions League
Referee: Sigurd Smehus Kringstad
Larne
U U T U S
2–1
Full-time
Tre Fiori
T U S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Larne Tre Fiori
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
17%
33%
Points per game
1,2
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 33%
33%
33%
Both score Ø 25%
33%
17%
Average goals
1,7
2,0
Scored
0,7
0,7
Conceded
1,0
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,3
-0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 1/1 matches
Win Ø 50%
100%
0%
Points per game
3,0
0,0
Over 2.5 Ø 0%
0%
0%
Both score Ø 0%
0%
0%
Average goals
1,0
1,0
Scored
1,0
0,0
Conceded
0,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
+1,0
-1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

68% Possession 32%
12 Shots 7
4 Shots on target 3
0 Blocked shots 0
5 Corners 1
1 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 2

Recent head-to-head meetings

7. Jul -26 Tre Fiori – Larne 0–1

Match report

Larne Tre Fiori
11′
⚽ P. Mengucci 0–1
M. Prandelli
1–1 M. Ridley ⚽
R. Doherty
25′
32′
🟨 Alessandro D'Addario
Half-time 1–1
49′
🟨 Tom Syku
Conor McKendry 🟨
53′
58′
🟨 Simone Rea
K. O'Hara 🔁
↦ M. Gibson
58′
J. McEneff 🔁
↦ C. McKendry
58′
59′
🔁 M. Ben Kacem
↦ A. D'Addario
59′
🔁 G. Ponticelli
↦ M. Prandelli
63′
🟨 Simone Rea
63′
🟥 Simone Rea
67′
🟨 Nico Manara
2–1 D. Bent ⚽
69′
72′
🔁 T. L. Bernardi
↦ N. Manara
D. Sloan 🔁
↦ R. Doherty
76′
P. O'Neill 🔁
↦ M. Lusty
80′
J. Simpson 🔁
↦ S. Graham
80′
83′
🔁 L. Censoni
↦ R. Bertani
83′
🔁 L. Terenzi
↦ P. Mengucci
90′
🟨 Tommaso Bernardi
90′
🟨 Giulio Ponticelli
90′
🟨 Tommaso Bernardi
90′
🟥 Tommaso Bernardi
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Larne

4-3-3
1 R. Ferguson G
23 T. Cosgrove D
26 D. Bent M
3 M. Ridley D
4 A. Donnelly D
6 C. Gallagher M
15 R. Doherty M
11 S. Graham D
7 C. McKendry M
45 M. Gibson F
30 M. Lusty F
Bench (10)
31 D. Collett
36 D. Graham
2 L. Wallace
9 P. O'Neill
14 B. Magee
17 J. Ukek
19 K. O'Hara
22 J. McEneff
25 D. Sloan
47 J. Simpson

Coach: Gary Haveron

Tre Fiori

4-2-3-1
17 M. Nardi G
2 A. D'Addario D
6 T. Syku D
5 S. Rea D
3 M. Sancisi D
4 B. Sami M
29 R. Bertani M
20 F. Benedettini M
76 N. Manara F
24 P. Mengucci D
9 M. Prandelli F
Bench (9)
25 A. Castagnoli
8 L. Censoni
10 T. L. Bernardi
12 F. Pesaresi
16 F. Dolcini
23 A. Sirri
27 M. Ben Kacem
28 L. Terenzi
99 G. Ponticelli

Coach: Matteo Cecchetti

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Sigurd Smehus Kringstad · 73 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,5 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
25,4 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,15 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.