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Conference League
Referee: Adam Ladeback
Larne
S U U U U
0–3
Full-time
Santa Clara
U S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Larne Santa Clara
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
17%
67%
Points per game
1,2
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
17%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
33%
67%
Average goals
1,5
2,5
Scored
0,7
1,7
Conceded
0,8
0,8
Goal diff per game
-0,2
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Conference League · 4/2 matches
Win Ø 25%
0%
50%
Points per game
1,0
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 38%
25%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
1,5
2,5
Scored
0,8
1,5
Conceded
0,8
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match report

Larne Santa Clara
26′
⚽ Wendell 0–1
Gabriel Silva
33′
⚽ Gabriel Silva 0–2
F. Venancio
36′
⚽ Gabriel Silva 0–3
Serginho
M. Ridley 🔁
↦ C. McKendry
39′
Half-time 0–3
50′
🟨 Sidney Lima
53′
🟨 Luís Rocha
55′
🔁 P. Ferreira
↦ Adriano Firmino
55′
🔁 J. Costa
↦ Wendell
55′
🔁 MT
↦ S. Lima
61′
🔁 Paulo Victor
↦ Matheus Pereira
Mark Randall 🟨
63′
70′
🔁 H. Pereira
↦ Gabriel Silva
B. Magee 🔁
↦ M. Randall
74′
K. Moore 🔁
↦ T. O'Connor
74′
J. Simpson 🔁
↦ S. Graham
77′
Dan Bent 🟨
81′
93′
🟨 João Costa
Full-time 0–3

Line-ups

Larne

4-3-3
1 R. Ferguson G
23 T. Cosgrove D
19 R. Nolan D
4 A. Donnelly D
11 S. Graham M
6 C. Gallagher M
8 M. Randall
25 D. Sloan M
7 C. McKendry M
26 D. Bent M
10 T. O'Connor F
Bench (10)
31 D. Collett
36 D. Graham
3 M. Ridley
14 B. Magee
17 J. Kee
27 K. Moore
30 M. Lusty
34 O. Devlin
46 L. Wallace
47 J. Simpson

Coach: Nathan Rooney

Santa Clara

5-3-2
1 Gabriel Batista G
11 Brenner F
23 S. Lima D
13 L. Rocha D
21 F. Venancio D
3 Matheus Pereira M
35 Serginho M
6 Adriano Firmino M
10 Gabriel Silva F
29 Wendell F
70 Vinicius Lopes F
Bench (8)
12 Neneca
50 J. Afonso
4 P. Pacheco
8 P. Ferreira
17 J. Costa
32 MT
64 Paulo Victor
77 H. Pereira

Coach: Vasco Miguel Lopes de Matos

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Adam Ladeback · 38 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,5 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
24,5 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,11 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.