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Champions League
Referee: Oliver Reitala
Aarhus
U U S S S
1–4
Full-time
Lech Poznan
S S U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aarhus Lech Poznan
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
50%
67%
Points per game
1,8
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
3,0
3,0
Scored
2,0
2,2
Conceded
1,0
0,8
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+1,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

43% Possession 57%
11 Shots 17
4 Shots on target 7
3 Blocked shots 7
3 Goalkeeper saves 2
4 Corners 2
2 Offside 1
11 Free kicks against 12
1 Yellow cards 2
1 Red cards 0

Match report

Aarhus Lech Poznan
29′
⚽ M. Ishak 0–1
J. Pereira
Jesper Hansen ℹ️
VAR: Card upgrade
36′
Jesper Hansen 🟥
37′
M. Hedenstad 🔁
↦ S. Jorgensen
40′
42′
⚽ P. Walemark 0–2
A. Kozubal
Half-time 0–2
50′
🟨 Radosław Murawski
Gift Links 🟨
51′
54′
🔁 F. Jagiello
↦ R. Murawski
1–2 K. Arnstad ⚽
F. Emmery
55′
61′
⚽ T. Yegbe 1–3
W. Monka
65′
⚽ P. Walemark 1–4
L. Palma
66′
🔁 L. Bengtsson
↦ P. Walemark
66′
🔁 Y. Agnero
↦ M. Ishak
66′
🔁 D. Hakans
↦ L. Palma
69′
🟨 Yannick Agnero
J. Andersen 🔁
↦ J. Jensen-Abbew
73′
K. Yakob 🔁
↦ M. Anderson
73′
J. Bogere 🔁
↦ T. Bech
73′
79′
🔁 R. Gumny
↦ J. Pereira
T. Kristjansson 🔁
↦ G. Links
83′
Full-time 1–4

Line-ups

Aarhus

3-4-3
1 J. Hansen G
40 J. Jensen-Abbew D
5 F. Tingager D
19 E. Kahl D
11 G. Links M
4 M. Knudsen M
10 K. Arnstad M
39 F. Emmery M
8 S. Jorgensen F
31 T. Bech F
23 M. Anderson F
Bench (12)
21 M. Hedenstad
42 M. van der Raad
16 J. Jonsson
26 J. Andersen
13 J. Serra
17 K. Yakob
27 S. Tchamche
22 O. Haugstrup
28 J. Bogere
20 T. Kristjansson
43 Z. Grantzau
44 M. Camara

Coach: Jakob Poulsen

Lech Poznan

4-2-3-1
1 M. Lis G
2 J. Pereira D
27 W. Monka D
59 T. Yegbe D
15 M. Gurgul D
22 R. Murawski M
43 A. Kozubal M
10 P. Walemark M
21 P. Rodriguez M
77 L. Palma M
9 M. Ishak F
Bench (12)
41 B. Mrozek
35 M. Pruchniewski
14 L. Bengtsson
4 J. Moutinho
7 Y. Agnero
90 H. Janyszka
24 F. Jagiello
20 R. Gumny
17 A. Sayyadmanesh
11 D. Hakans
72 M. Skrzypczak
23 G. Thordarson

Coach: Niels Frederiksen

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.