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Ekstraklasa
Referee: K Arys
1–3
Full-time
Lech Poznan
U S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Radomiak Radom Lech Poznan
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,8
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
33%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
1,8
2,7
Scored
1,2
1,8
Conceded
0,7
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Ekstraklasa · 32/32 matches
Win Ø 41%
34%
47%
Points per game
1,4
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 61%
56%
66%
Both score Ø 68%
69%
66%
Average goals
2,9
3,1
Scored
1,5
1,8
Conceded
1,4
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

0,50 xG 1,40
55% Possession 45%
7 Shots 11
2 Shots on target 5
3 Blocked shots 2
2 Goalkeeper saves 1
4 Corners 3
1 Offside 1
16 Free kicks against 15
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Radomiak Radom 8. · Lech Poznan 1.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Lech Poznan 32 15 11 6 +15 +27.8 56
2 Gornik Zabrze 33 15 8 10 +8 -3.3 53
3 Jagiellonia 32 14 10 8 +14 -5.9 52
4 Rakow 32 14 7 11 +6 +10.3 49
5 Zaglebie 33 13 9 11 +8 -8.7 48
6 GKS Katowice 32 14 6 12 +6 -5.4 48
7 Wisla Plock 33 12 9 12 -4 -2.5 45
8 Radomiak Radom 32 11 11 10 +5 -1.4 44
9 Pogon Szczecin 33 13 5 15 -2 +5.6 44
10 Legia 32 10 13 9 +0 +3.1 43
11 Lechia Gdansk 32 12 7 13 -1 +5.6 43
12 Motor Lublin 33 10 13 10 -3 -9.7 43
13 Korona Kielce 33 11 9 13 +0 -3.5 42
14 Piast Gliwice 32 11 8 13 -1 -0.8 41
15 Cracovia 33 9 14 10 -3 +2.4 41
16 Widzew Lodz 33 11 6 16 -1 +3.9 39
17 Arka Gdynia 32 9 9 14 -23 -8.2 36
18 Nieciecza 32 7 7 18 -24 -9.1 28

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Radomiak Radom Lech Poznan
1–0 J. Grzesik
V. Lopes
8′
Maurides 🔁
↦ Leandro
11′
16′
M. Ishak 1–1
L. Palma
22′
L. Palma 1–2
L. Bengtsson
Half-time 1–2
54′
🟨 Antoni Kozubal
58′
P. Walemark 1–3
M. Ishak
Joao Pedro 🔁
↦ V. Lopes
65′
S. Soumah 🔁
↦ E. Balde
66′
66′
🔁 F. Jagiello
↦ L. Palma
66′
🔁 D. Hakans
↦ P. Walemark
69′
🟨 Leo Bengtsson
78′
🔁 R. Murawski
↦ P. Rodriguez
78′
🔁 T. Ismaheel
↦ L. Bengtsson
Christos Donis 🟨
83′
R. Alves 🔁
↦ R. Baro
84′
A. Zabicki 🔁
↦ C. Donis
84′
84′
🔁 Y. Agnero
↦ M. Ishak
93′
🟨 Yannick Agnero
Roberto Alves 🟨
94′
Full-time 1–3

Line-ups

Radomiak Radom

4-1-4-1
1 F. Majchrowicz G
24 Zie Ouattara D
14 S. Kingue D
26 A. Dieguez D
13 J. Grzesik D
77 C. Donis M
21 E. Balde M
6 R. Baro M
82 Luquinhas M
7 V. Lopes M
9 Leandro F
Bench (12)
44 W. Koptas
75 M. Jerke
10 R. Alves
5 J. Blasco
20 Joao Pedro
19 S. Soumah
25 Maurides
16 M. Cichocki
2 I. Camara
28 M. Kaput
33 O. Markiewicz
17 A. Zabicki

Coach: Bruno Baltazar

Lech Poznan

4-4-2
41 B. Mrozek G
2 J. Pereira D
72 M. Skrzypczak D
27 W. Monka D
15 M. Gurgul D
10 P. Walemark M
43 A. Kozubal M
99 P. Rodriguez M
14 L. Bengtsson M
9 M. Ishak F
77 L. Palma F
Bench (9)
1 P. Andreev
33 M. Pruchniewski
22 R. Murawski
7 Y. Agnero
90 H. Janyszka
24 F. Jagiello
11 D. Hakans
88 T. Ismaheel
6 T. Ouma

Coach: Niels Frederiksen

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
U
B ✓
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

K Arys · 61 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,1 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
23,3 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.