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Europa League
Referee: M Oliver
Roma
S T U U T
1–0
Full-time
Leverkusen
U S S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Leverkusen
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,3
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
50%
33%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
3,0
2,0
Scored
1,7
1,3
Conceded
1,3
0,7
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 12/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
50%
67%
Points per game
1,7
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
2,4
3,5
Scored
1,6
2,3
Conceded
0,8
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,8
+1,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,31 xG 0,97
38% Possession 62%
12 Shots 10
5 Shots on target 2
2 Blocked shots 2
1 Goalkeeper saves 4
2 Corners 3
1 Offside 1
16 Free kicks against 14
4 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Roma Leverkusen
36′
🔁 M. Bakker
↦ O. Kossounou
Half-time 0–0
50′
🟨 Robert Andrich
57′
🟨 Jonathan Tah
57′
🟨 Moussa Diaby
Gianluca Mancini 🟨
58′
1–0 E. Bove ⚽
63′
72′
🔁 A. Adli
↦ M. Diaby
72′
🔁 S. Azmoun
↦ A. Hložek
Tammy Abraham 🟨
76′
G. Wijnaldum 🔁
↦ E. Bove
76′
P. Dybala 🔁
↦ A. Belotti
77′
Roger Ibañez 🟨
89′
92′
🔁 N. Amiri
↦ R. Andrich
Leonardo Spinazzola 🟨
93′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Roma

3-4-1-2
1 Rui Patrício G
23 G. Mancini D
4 B. Cristante D
3 Ibañez D
19 Z. Çelik M
52 E. Bove M
8 N. Matić M
37 L. Spinazzola M
7 L. Pellegrini F
11 A. Belotti F
9 T. Abraham F
Bench (12)
25 G. Wijnaldum
21 P. Dybala
63 P. Boer
6 C. Smalling
20 M. Camara
58 F. Missori
59 N. Zalewski
2 R. Karsdorp
73 G. Faticanti
68 B. Tahirović
99 M. Svilar
92 S. El Shaarawy

Coach: José Mourinho

Leverkusen

3-4-2-1
1 L. Hrádecký G
6 O. Kossounou D
4 J. Tah D
12 E. Tapsoba D
30 J. Frimpong M
25 E. Palacios M
8 R. Andrich M
3 P. Hincapié M
19 M. Diaby F
27 F. Wirtz F
23 A. Hložek F
Bench (10)
5 M. Bakker
21 A. Adli
9 S. Azmoun
11 N. Amiri
41 M. Neutgens
17 C. Hudson-Odoi
24 T. Fosu-Mensah
36 N. Lomb
10 K. Demirbay
32 A. Azhil

Coach: Xabi Alonso

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

M Oliver · 207 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,6 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
22,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,14 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.