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Bundesliga

Referee: D Schlager

Leverkusen

S S U U S

2–0

Full-time

RB Leipzig

T T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leverkusen RB Leipzig

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

2,8

3,2

Scored

2,2

1,0

Conceded

0,7

2,2

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 50%

46%

54%

Points per game

1,6

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

68%

71%

Both score Ø 56%

54%

57%

Average goals

3,3

3,1

Scored

1,8

1,9

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,13 xG 1,98

31% Possession 69%

8 Shots 26

6 Shots on target 8

1 Blocked shots 9

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

0 Corners 9

1 Offside 3

10 Free kicks against 9

3 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Leverkusen 7. · RB Leipzig 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	29	19	3	7	+27	+10.3	60
2	Bayern Munich	29	17	8	4	+46	+9.5	59
3	Freiburg	29	15	8	6	+8	-4.2	53
4	Union Berlin	28	15	7	6	+12	-4.3	52
5	RB Leipzig	28	15	6	7	+18	+7.6	51
6	Mainz	29	12	9	8	+9	+1.8	45
7	Leverkusen	28	13	5	10	+10	+10.0	44
8	Wolfsburg	29	11	10	8	+14	+7.2	43
9	Ein Frankfurt	29	11	9	9	+4	-0.8	42
10	M'gladbach	28	9	9	10	-2	-2.0	36
11	FC Koln	29	8	11	10	-7	+1.0	35
12	Werder Bremen	29	10	5	14	-9	-4.7	35
13	Augsburg	29	8	6	15	-16	-8.6	30
14	Hoffenheim	29	8	5	16	-11	-4.0	29
15	Bochum	29	8	3	18	-34	-6.5	27
16	Stuttgart	29	5	10	14	-15	-0.3	25
17	Schalke 04	29	5	9	15	-30	-4.4	24
18	Hertha	29	5	7	17	-24	-7.7	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	14	12	1	1	+29	+7.6	37
2	Bayern Munich	14	9	5	0	+30	+9.9	32
3	RB Leipzig	14	10	2	2	+16	-0.8	32
4	Union Berlin	14	9	5	0	+16	-0.5	32
5	Freiburg	15	9	4	2	+14	-0.7	31
6	M'gladbach	14	8	3	3	+12	+3.8	27
7	Ein Frankfurt	14	7	4	3	+13	+5.4	25
8	Mainz	15	6	6	3	+10	+1.6	24
9	Leverkusen	14	7	2	5	+11	+5.7	23
10	FC Koln	14	5	5	4	+7	+3.2	20
11	Wolfsburg	14	4	7	3	+6	+5.4	19
12	Augsburg	15	5	4	6	-6	-2.7	19
13	Bochum	14	6	1	7	-8	-0.1	19
14	Hertha	15	4	5	6	-4	-2.1	17
15	Hoffenheim	15	5	2	8	-5	+1.8	17
16	Stuttgart	14	4	4	6	+0	+0.8	16
17	Werder Bremen	15	5	1	9	-1	+1.4	16
18	Schalke 04	15	4	4	7	-14	-2.2	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	15	8	3	4	+16	-0.4	27
2	Wolfsburg	15	7	3	5	+8	+1.8	24
3	Dortmund	15	7	2	6	-2	+2.7	23
4	Freiburg	14	6	4	4	-6	-3.6	22
5	Mainz	14	6	3	5	-1	+0.2	21
6	Leverkusen	14	6	3	5	-1	+4.3	21
7	Union Berlin	14	6	2	6	-4	-3.8	20
8	RB Leipzig	14	5	4	5	+2	+8.4	19
9	Werder Bremen	14	5	4	5	-8	-6.1	19
10	Ein Frankfurt	15	4	5	6	-9	-6.2	17
11	FC Koln	15	3	6	6	-14	-2.2	15
12	Hoffenheim	14	3	3	8	-6	-5.8	12
13	Augsburg	14	3	2	9	-10	-5.9	11
14	M'gladbach	14	1	6	7	-14	-5.8	9
15	Stuttgart	15	1	6	8	-15	-1.1	9
16	Schalke 04	14	1	5	8	-16	-2.1	8
17	Bochum	15	2	2	11	-26	-6.4	8
18	Hertha	14	1	2	11	-20	-5.6	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.