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Conference League
Referee: F Letexier
Fiorentina
T U S U T
1–2
Full-time
Basel
S T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Basel
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
17%
50%
Points per game
0,8
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
3,7
2,8
Scored
2,0
1,5
Conceded
1,7
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Conference League · 14/18 matches
Win Ø 58%
71%
44%
Points per game
2,3
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 65%
79%
50%
Both score Ø 57%
57%
56%
Average goals
3,4
2,7
Scored
2,4
1,6
Conceded
1,0
1,2
Goal diff per game
+1,4
+0,4
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,42 xG 1,21
60% Possession 40%
15 Shots 8
3 Shots on target 3
2 Blocked shots 0
1 Goalkeeper saves 2
9 Corners 4
0 Offside 3
10 Free kicks against 11
0 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Fiorentina Basel
1–0 Arthur Cabral ⚽
L. Martínez
25′
Half-time 1–0
59′
🟨 Kasim Adams
63′
🔁 L. Millar
↦ R. Calafiori
71′
⚽ A. Diouf 1–1
T. Xhaka
72′
🟨 Wouter Burger
G. Castrovilli 🔁
↦ S. Amrabat
73′
J. Brekalo 🔁
↦ N. González
73′
77′
🔁 A. Zeqiri
↦ J. Augustin
78′
🟨 Dan Ndoye
C. Kouamé 🔁
↦ J. Ikoné
81′
L. Jović 🔁
↦ Arthur Cabral
81′
86′
🔁 D. Males
↦ W. Burger
A. Barák 🔁
↦ G. Bonaventura
87′
92′
⚽ Z. Amdouni 1–2
D. Males
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Fiorentina

4-3-3
1 P. Terracciano G
2 Dodô D
28 L. Martínez D
16 L. Ranieri D
3 C. Biraghi D
5 G. Bonaventura M
34 S. Amrabat M
38 R. Mandragora M
11 J. Ikoné F
9 Arthur Cabral F
22 N. González F
Bench (12)
10 G. Castrovilli
77 J. Brekalo
99 C. Kouamé
7 L. Jović
72 A. Barák
8 R. Saponara
32 A. Duncan
23 L. Venuti
15 A. Terzić
42 A. Bianco
98 Igor
31 M. Cerofolini

Coach: V. Italiano

Basel

3-5-2
1 M. Hitz G
5 M. Lang D
15 K. Adams D
21 A. Pelmard D
27 D. Ndoye M
8 A. Diouf M
34 T. Xhaka M
23 W. Burger M
33 R. Calafiori M
10 J. Augustin F
9 Z. Amdouni F
Bench (11)
7 L. Millar
17 A. Zeqiri
19 D. Males
18 E. Essiam
30 A. Kade
28 H. Vogel
90 Hugo Novoa
20 F. Frei
13 M. Salvi
16 N. de Mol
14 B. Fink

Coach: H. Vogel

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

F Letexier · 176 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,0 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
23,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,25 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.