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Europa League
Referee: F Zwayer
Marseille
T T T T T
1–0
Full-time
Benfica
S U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marseille Benfica
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
17%
67%
Points per game
0,5
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,8
2,5
Scored
0,8
1,7
Conceded
2,0
0,8
Goal diff per game
-1,2
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 11/5 matches
Win Ø 53%
45%
60%
Points per game
1,6
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 71%
82%
60%
Both score Ø 67%
73%
60%
Average goals
3,9
2,2
Scored
2,3
1,4
Conceded
1,6
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,6
+0,6
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,79 xG 1,39
54% Possession 46%
19 Shots 11
5 Shots on target 5
5 Blocked shots 2
5 Goalkeeper saves 4
8 Corners 6
2 Offside 3
14 Free kicks against 19
3 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

11. Apr -24 Benfica – Marseille 2–1

Match report

Marseille Benfica
38′
🟨 António Silva
Half-time 0–0
A. Murillo 🔁
↦ C. Mbemba
46′
Chancel Mbemba 🟨
47′
F. Moumbagna 🔁
↦ E. Soglo
58′
Luis Henrique 🔁
↦ A. Ounahi
59′
60′
🟨 Casper Tengstedt
61′
🔁 João Mário
↦ David Neres
61′
🔁 O. Kökçü
↦ C. Tengstedt
J. Correa 🔁
↦ I. Ndiaye
75′
1–0 F. Moumbagna ⚽
P. Aubameyang
79′
Samuel Gigot 🟨
89′
Amine Harit 🟨
89′
R. Daou 🔁
↦ S. Gigot
100′
102′
🔁 Arthur Cabral
↦ Rafa
109′
🟨 Orkun Kökçü
G. Lafont 🔁
↦ A. Harit
110′
113′
🟨 Florentino Luís
121′
❌ Á. Di María
penalty missed
2–0 J. Correa ⚽
122′
123′
⚽ O. Kökçü 2–1
3–1 G. Kondogbia ⚽
124′
125′
⚽ N. Otamendi 3–2
4–2 L. Balerdi ⚽
126′
127′
❌ António Silva
penalty missed
5–2 Luis Henrique ⚽
128′
Full-time 5–2

Line-ups

Marseille

3-5-1-1
16 Pau López G
99 C. Mbemba D
4 S. Gigot D
5 L. Balerdi D
11 A. Harit M
8 A. Ounahi M
19 G. Kondogbia M
27 J. Veretout M
37 E. Soglo M
29 I. Ndiaye F
10 P. Aubameyang F
Bench (9)
62 A. Murillo
14 F. Moumbagna
44 Luis Henrique
20 J. Correa
49 R. Daou
46 G. Lafont
48 Y. Said M'Madi
41 K. Abdallah
36 Rubén Blanco

Coach: J. Gasset

Benfica

4-2-3-1
1 A. Trubin G
6 A. Bah D
4 António Silva D
30 N. Otamendi D
8 F. Aursnes D
61 Florentino M
87 João Neves M
11 Á. Di María M
27 Rafa M
7 David Neres M
19 C. Tengstedt F
Bench (12)
20 João Mário
10 O. Kökçü
9 Arthur Cabral
24 Samuel Soares
75 André Gomes
81 A. Bajrami
5 Morato
47 Tiago Gouveia
36 Marcos Leonardo
3 Álvaro Fernández
32 B. Rollheiser
82 Diogo Spencer

Coach: R. Schmidt

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

F Zwayer · 152 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,5 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,14 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.