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Europa League
Referee: M Oliver
Benfica
S S S U T
2–1
Full-time
Marseille
S T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Benfica Marseille
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
67%
33%
Points per game
2,2
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
2,3
3,0
Scored
1,5
1,3
Conceded
0,8
1,7
Goal diff per game
+0,7
-0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 4/10 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
2,0
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 65%
50%
80%
Both score Ø 60%
50%
70%
Average goals
2,0
4,0
Scored
1,3
2,4
Conceded
0,8
1,6
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,05 xG 0,83
57% Possession 43%
10 Shots 12
3 Shots on target 2
4 Blocked shots 5
1 Goalkeeper saves 1
5 Corners 8
1 Offside 0
10 Free kicks against 8
1 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Benfica Marseille
1–0 Rafa ⚽
C. Tengstedt
16′
David Neres 🟨
18′
Half-time 1–0
47′
🔁 I. Ndiaye
↦ Q. Merlin
2–0 Á. Di María ⚽
David Neres
52′
53′
🔁 A. Ounahi
↦ F. Moumbagna
67′
🔁 E. Soglo
↦ C. Mbemba
67′
⚽ P. Aubameyang 2–1
A. Ounahi
Marcos Leonardo 🔁
↦ C. Tengstedt
71′
João Mário 🔁
↦ David Neres
71′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Benfica

4-2-3-1
1 A. Trubin G
6 A. Bah D
4 António Silva D
30 N. Otamendi D
8 F. Aursnes D
87 João Neves M
61 Florentino M
11 Á. Di María M
27 Rafa M
7 David Neres M
19 C. Tengstedt F
Bench (11)
36 Marcos Leonardo
20 João Mário
5 Morato
44 Tomás Araújo
9 Arthur Cabral
24 Samuel Soares
10 O. Kökçü
47 Tiago Gouveia
32 B. Rollheiser
3 Álvaro Fernández
75 André Gomes

Coach: R. Schmidt

Marseille

3-4-2-1
16 Pau López G
99 C. Mbemba D
4 S. Gigot D
5 L. Balerdi D
44 Luis Henrique M
19 G. Kondogbia M
27 J. Veretout M
3 Q. Merlin M
11 A. Harit F
10 P. Aubameyang F
14 F. Moumbagna F
Bench (8)
29 I. Ndiaye
8 A. Ounahi
37 E. Soglo
48 Y. Said M'Madi
62 A. Murillo
36 Rubén Blanco
20 J. Correa
49 R. Daou

Coach: J. Gasset

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

M Oliver · 207 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,6 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
22,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,14 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.