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Ligue 1

Referee: B Dechepy

Lille

S U U U S

3–1

Full-time

Marseille

S S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lille Marseille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,5

3,3

Scored

1,7

2,0

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 41%

44%

37%

Points per game

1,7

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

41%

Both score Ø 48%

48%

Average goals

2,3

2,6

Scored

1,4

1,5

Conceded

0,9

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,6

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,77 xG 1,06

54% Possession 46%

14 Shots 13

6 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 2

1 Offside 3

13 Free kicks against 18

1 Yellow cards 6

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lille 4. · Marseille 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	27	18	8	1	+41	+21.3	62
2	Brest	27	14	8	5	+17	+8.6	50
3	Monaco	27	14	7	6	+14	+7.6	49
4	Lille	27	12	10	5	+15	+13.7	46
5	Nice	27	12	7	8	+6	+9.6	43
6	Lens	27	12	6	9	+7	+1.5	42
7	Marseille	27	10	9	8	+10	+17.2	39
8	Rennes	27	10	9	8	+7	+6.9	39
9	Reims	27	11	6	10	-1	+5.5	39
10	Lyon	27	10	5	12	-10	-5.8	35
11	Toulouse	27	8	8	11	-4	-7.0	32
12	Strasbourg	27	8	8	11	-9	-2.9	32
13	Montpellier	27	7	9	11	-7	+1.3	30
14	Nantes	27	8	4	15	-16	-11.7	28
15	Le Havre	27	6	9	12	-9	-12.4	27
16	Lorient	27	6	8	13	-15	-14.2	26
17	Metz	27	6	5	16	-19	-17.3	23
18	Clermont	27	4	8	15	-27	-21.9	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lille	13	9	3	1	+18	+17.5	30
2	Marseille	14	8	5	1	+15	+15.0	29
3	Paris SG	13	8	4	1	+19	+14.3	28
4	Brest	13	7	5	1	+12	+11.6	26
5	Nice	14	7	4	3	+7	+7.9	25
6	Rennes	14	7	3	4	+10	+11.3	24
7	Lens	13	7	2	4	+6	+5.8	23
8	Monaco	13	6	3	4	+7	+8.0	21
9	Reims	13	6	2	5	+0	+6.1	20
10	Strasbourg	14	5	3	6	-2	+1.3	18
11	Le Havre	13	5	2	6	+0	+2.2	17
12	Lyon	14	4	4	6	-7	+0.7	16
13	Toulouse	13	3	5	5	+0	+4.1	14
14	Montpellier	14	2	8	4	-3	+7.3	14
15	Lorient	14	3	4	7	-5	-5.2	13
16	Nantes	14	3	3	8	-7	-4.3	12
17	Clermont	14	2	4	8	-15	-8.5	10
18	Metz	13	2	3	8	-7	-1.9	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	14	10	4	0	+22	+7.1	34
2	Monaco	14	8	4	2	+7	-0.4	28
3	Brest	14	7	3	4	+5	-3.0	24
4	Lens	14	5	4	5	+1	-4.3	19
5	Reims	14	5	4	5	-1	-0.6	19
6	Lyon	13	6	1	6	-3	-6.5	19
7	Nice	13	5	3	5	-1	+1.7	18
8	Toulouse	14	5	3	6	-4	-11.1	18
9	Lille	14	3	7	4	-3	-3.8	16
10	Montpellier	13	5	1	7	-4	-6.0	16
11	Nantes	13	5	1	7	-9	-7.5	16
12	Rennes	13	3	6	4	-3	-4.5	15
13	Strasbourg	13	3	5	5	-7	-4.2	14
14	Metz	14	4	2	8	-12	-15.4	14
15	Lorient	13	3	4	6	-10	-9.0	13
16	Marseille	13	2	4	7	-5	+2.2	10
17	Le Havre	14	1	7	6	-9	-14.6	10
18	Clermont	13	2	4	7	-12	-13.4	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.