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Europa League
Referee: M Barbu
Rīgas FS
U T U T T
1–0
Full-time
Ajax
S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Rīgas FS Ajax
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
0%
83%
Points per game
0,3
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
50%
33%
Both score Ø 42%
67%
17%
Average goals
2,8
2,3
Scored
0,8
1,8
Conceded
2,0
0,5
Goal diff per game
-1,2
+1,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 10/12 matches
Win Ø 49%
30%
67%
Points per game
1,1
2,1
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
60%
58%
Both score Ø 47%
60%
33%
Average goals
3,2
2,9
Scored
1,7
2,2
Conceded
1,5
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+1,4
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,24 xG 1,05
31% Possession 69%
7 Shots 13
2 Shots on target 6
2 Blocked shots 1
5 Goalkeeper saves 1
1 Corners 5
0 Offside 2
14 Free kicks against 7
3 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Rīgas FS Ajax
Adam Markhiyev 🟨
37′
Half-time 0–0
Roberts Savaļnieks 🟨
54′
D. Lemajič 🔁
↦ C. Kouadio
61′
61′
🔁 W. Weghorst
↦ B. Brobbey
61′
🔁 S. Berghuis
↦ A. Gaaei
Stefan Panić 🟨
67′
73′
🔁 C. Akpom
↦ M. Godts
1–0 A. Markhiev ⚽
78′
81′
🔁 B. van den Boomen
↦ K. Taylor
81′
🔁 C. Rasmussen
↦ B. Traoré
83′
🟨 Branco van den Boomen
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Rīgas FS

5-3-2
40 F. Ondoa G
11 R. Savaļnieks D
30 H. Njie D
23 H. Prenga D
43 Ž. Lipušček D
8 L. Odisharia D
27 A. Markhiev M
26 S. Panič M
18 D. Zelenkovs M
9 J. Ikaunieks F
17 C. Kouadio F
Bench (7)
22 D. Lemajič
1 P. Šteinbors
77 L. Silagadze
21 E. Stuglis
25 P. Mareš
15 R. Ndjiki
16 S. Vilkovs

Coach: V. Morozs

Ajax

4-3-3
22 R. Pasveer G
3 A. Gaaei D
37 J. Šutalo D
24 D. Rugani D
15 Y. Baas D
28 K. Fitz-Jim M
6 J. Henderson M
8 K. Taylor M
20 B. Traoré F
9 B. Brobbey F
11 M. Godts F
Bench (12)
25 W. Weghorst
23 S. Berghuis
10 C. Akpom
21 B. van den Boomen
29 C. Rasmussen
40 D. Ramaj
16 S. Mannsverk
38 K. Hlynsson
12 J. Gorter
13 A. Kaplan
31 J. Mokio
47 G. Alders

Coach: F. Farioli

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

M Barbu · 17 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,9 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
23,1 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,07 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.