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Europa League
Referee: I Peljto
AZ Alkmaar
S S U S U
1–0
Full-time
Roma
S U S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AZ Alkmaar Roma
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
50%
67%
Points per game
2,0
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
2,8
3,7
Scored
1,8
2,8
Conceded
1,0
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,8
+2,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,3
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
50%
33%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
3,0
2,2
Scored
1,5
1,3
Conceded
1,5
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,08 xG 0,73
36% Possession 64%
7 Shots 11
1 Shots on target 2
3 Blocked shots 3
2 Goalkeeper saves 0
6 Corners 1
1 Offside 0
19 Free kicks against 10
3 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Match report

AZ Alkmaar Roma
19′
🟨 Artem Dovbyk
35′
🟨 Mats Hummels
Half-time 0–0
46′
🔁 M. Soulé
↦ A. Dovbyk
Mexx Meerdink 🟨
53′
K. Belić 🔁
↦ P. Koopmeiners
62′
Z. Buurmeester 🔁
↦ M. Lahdo
62′
Wouter Goes 🟨
63′
71′
🟨 Alexis Saelemaekers
R. Daal 🔁
↦ E. Poku
72′
T. Parrott 🔁
↦ M. Meerdink
72′
74′
🔁 S. El Shaarawy
↦ A. Saelemaekers
1–0 T. Parrott ⚽
D. Møller Wolfe
80′
85′
🔁 T. Baldanzi
↦ L. Paredes
Kristijan Belić 🟨
92′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

AZ Alkmaar

4-2-3-1
1 R. Owusu-Oduro G
16 S. Maikuma D
3 W. Goes D
5 Alexandre Penetra D
18 D. Møller Wolfe D
6 P. Koopmeiners M
8 J. Clasie M
21 E. Poku M
10 S. Mijnans M
23 M. Lahdo M
35 M. Meerdink F
Bench (11)
14 K. Belić
28 Z. Buurmeester
37 R. Daal
9 T. Parrott
4 B. Martins Indi
41 J. Zoet
26 K. Smit
12 H. Verhulst
22 M. Dekker
17 J. Addai
34 M. de Wit

Coach: M. Martens

Roma

3-5-2
99 M. Svilar G
19 Z. Çelik D
15 M. Hummels D
5 E. Ndicka D
56 A. Saelemaekers M
17 M. Koné M
16 L. Paredes M
61 N. Pisilli M
3 Angeliño M
21 P. Dybala F
11 A. Dovbyk F
Bench (11)
18 M. Soulé
92 S. El Shaarawy
35 T. Baldanzi
70 G. De Marzi
14 E. Shomurodov
23 G. Mancini
7 L. Pellegrini
12 Saud Abdulhamid
73 A. Marcaccini
22 Hermoso
59 N. Zalewski

Coach: C. Ranieri

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

I Peljto · 38 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,0 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
22,1 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,22 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.