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Europa League
Referee: C Turpin
Ath Bilbao
U S T T U
3–1
Full-time
Roma
S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Bilbao Roma
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
33%
100%
Points per game
1,3
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
3,2
2,8
Scored
2,2
2,2
Conceded
1,0
0,7
Goal diff per game
+1,2
+1,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 9/11 matches
Win Ø 56%
67%
45%
Points per game
2,1
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 46%
56%
36%
Both score Ø 56%
56%
55%
Average goals
2,8
2,4
Scored
1,8
1,5
Conceded
1,0
0,9
Goal diff per game
+0,8
+0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,84 xG 1,15
70% Possession 30%
22 Shots 5
8 Shots on target 2
6 Blocked shots 1
1 Goalkeeper saves 5
9 Corners 2
1 Offside 2
11 Free kicks against 4
2 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 1

Recent head-to-head meetings

6. Mar -25 Roma – Ath Bilbao 2–1 26. Sep -24 Roma – Ath Bilbao 1–1

Match report

Ath Bilbao Roma
11′
🟥 Mats Hummels
12′
🟨 Mile Svilar
Half-time 0–0
Álex Berenguer 🔁
↦ Unai Gómez
46′
1–0 Nico Williams ⚽
48′
53′
🔁 M. Soulé
↦ A. Dovbyk
60′
🟨 Devyne Rensch
61′
🔁 E. Shomurodov
↦ P. Dybala
61′
🔁 N. Pisilli
↦ T. Baldanzi
2–0 Yuri ⚽
Unai Núñez
68′
Lekue 🔁
↦ Aitor Paredes
69′
Iñaki Williams 🟨
71′
71′
🟨 Leandro Paredes
Gorka Guruzeta 🔁
↦ Maroan Sannadi
77′
3–0 Nico Williams ⚽
Yuri
82′
83′
🔁 A. Saelemaekers
↦ B. Cristante
84′
🔁 S. El Shaarawy
↦ D. Rensch
Andoni Gorosabel 🔁
↦ I. Williams
88′
Beñat Prados 🔁
↦ Ruíz de Galarreta
88′
Andoni Gorosabel 🟨
91′
93′
🟨 Matías Soulé
93′
⚽ L. Paredes 3–1
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Ath Bilbao

4-2-3-1
13 Julen Agirrezabala G
18 De Marcos D
14 Unai Núñez D
4 Aitor Paredes D
17 Yuri D
23 Mikel Jauregizar M
16 Ruíz de Galarreta M
9 I. Williams M
20 Unai Gómez M
10 Nico Williams M
21 Maroan Sannadi F
Bench (12)
7 Álex Berenguer
15 Lekue
12 Gorka Guruzeta
2 Andoni Gorosabel
24 Beñat Prados
32 Adama Boiro
33 Aingeru Olabarrieta
1 Unai Simón
6 Mikel Vesga
11 Álvaro Djaló
30 Aimar Duñabeitia
28 Peio Canales

Coach: Ernesto Valverde

Roma

3-4-2-1
99 M. Svilar G
23 G. Mancini D
15 M. Hummels D
5 E. Ndicka D
2 D. Rensch M
4 B. Cristante M
16 L. Paredes M
3 Angeliño M
21 P. Dybala F
35 T. Baldanzi F
11 A. Dovbyk F
Bench (12)
18 M. Soulé
14 E. Shomurodov
61 N. Pisilli
56 A. Saelemaekers
92 S. El Shaarawy
12 Saud Abdulhamid
25 V. Nelsson
17 M. Koné
95 P. Gollini
66 Buba Sangaré
70 G. De Marzi
7 L. Pellegrini

Coach: C. Ranieri

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

C Turpin · 184 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,3 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
23,9 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,20 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.