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Conference League
Referee: A Treimanis
Lugano
S T T T T
5–4
Full-time
Celje
T S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lugano Celje
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
17%
50%
Points per game
0,7
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
33%
50%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
2,0
3,3
Scored
0,7
1,8
Conceded
1,3
1,5
Goal diff per game
-0,7
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Conference League · 7/11 matches
Win Ø 51%
57%
45%
Points per game
1,9
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 61%
57%
64%
Both score Ø 54%
43%
64%
Average goals
2,7
3,5
Scored
1,6
2,0
Conceded
1,1
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,4
+0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

2,84 xG 2,44
42% Possession 58%
16 Shots 16
8 Shots on target 7
3 Blocked shots 3
3 Goalkeeper saves 2
5 Corners 2
0 Offside 1
19 Free kicks against 20
5 Yellow cards 3
1 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

6. Mar -25 Celje – Lugano 1–0

Match report

Lugano Celje
Sebastian Osigwe 🟨
-5′
1–0 H. Mahmoud ⚽
G. Koutsias
21′
24′
🟨 Logan Delaurier-Chaubet
40′
⚽ S. Sešlar 1–1
A. Kučys
2–1 G. Koutsias ⚽
R. Steffen
42′
3–1 Daniel Dos Santos ⚽
U. Bislimi
44′
Half-time 3–1
46′
🔁 M. Kvesić
↦ M. Dulca
46′
🔁 A. Matko
↦ L. Delaurier-Chaubet
Daniel Dos Santos Correia 🟨
51′
Georgios Koutsias 🟨
61′
Y. Cimignani 🔁
↦ Daniel Dos Santos
64′
68′
⚽ T. Svetlin 3–2
Ž. Karničnik
4–2 G. Koutsias ⚽
R. Steffen
80′
K. Przybyłko 🔁
↦ G. Koutsias
88′
92′
ℹ️ Mario Kvesić
VAR: Penalty confirmed
Albian Hajdari 🟥
93′
95′
⚽ A. Kučys 4–3
A. El Wafi 🔁
↦ H. Mahmoud
96′
97′
⚽ Juanjo Nieto 4–4
O. Doumbia 🔁
↦ A. Grgic
102′
Martim Marques 🔁
↦ M. Valenzuela
102′
105′
🟨 Tamar Svetlin
Renato Steffen 🟨
112′
Yanis Cimignani 🟨
112′
112′
🟨 Ricardo Silva
115′
🔁 Edmilson
↦ A. Kučys
5–4 O. Doumbia ⚽
M. Zanotti
118′
K. Przybyłko ❌
penalty missed
121′
122′
⚽ Edmilson 5–5
R. Steffen ❌
penalty missed
123′
124′
⚽ S. Sešlar 5–6
6–6 L. Mai ⚽
125′
126′
⚽ Ž. Karničnik 6–7
Y. Cimignani ❌
penalty missed
127′
Full-time 6–7

Line-ups

Lugano

4-2-3-1
1 A. Saipi G
46 M. Zanotti D
17 L. Mai D
5 A. Hajdari D
23 M. Valenzuela D
8 A. Grgic M
29 H. Mahmoud M
11 R. Steffen M
25 U. Bislimi M
27 Daniel Dos Santos M
70 G. Koutsias F
Bench (9)
21 Y. Cimignani
93 K. Przybyłko
22 A. El Wafi
20 O. Doumbia
26 Martim Marques
58 S. Osigwe
2 Z. Brault-Guillard
99 D. Mina
28 Y. Ryter

Coach: M. Croci-Torti

Celje

4-4-1-1
41 Ricardo Silva G
2 Juanjo Nieto D
3 D. Vukliševič D
44 Ł. Bejger D
23 Ž. Karničnik D
35 L. Delaurier-Chaubet M
19 M. Zabukovnik M
4 M. Dulca M
88 T. Svetlin M
11 S. Sešlar F
47 A. Kučys F
Bench (8)
16 M. Kvesić
7 A. Matko
30 Edmilson
10 N. Kouter
12 L. Kolar
5 C. Lhernault
38 Z. Žužek
17 S. Gobec

Coach: Albert Riera

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

A Treimanis · 28 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,9 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
26,2 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,25 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.