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Europa League
Referee: Sandro Schärer
Bologna
U S S T S
1–3
Full-time
Aston Villa
T S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bologna Aston Villa
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,7
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
50%
33%
Both score Ø 50%
67%
33%
Average goals
3,0
2,7
Scored
1,5
1,2
Conceded
1,5
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,0
-0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 12/10 matches
Win Ø 74%
58%
90%
Points per game
2,1
2,7
Over 2.5 Ø 45%
50%
40%
Both score Ø 49%
58%
40%
Average goals
2,7
2,3
Scored
1,8
1,7
Conceded
0,9
0,6
Goal diff per game
+0,8
+1,1
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,85 xG 1,57
58% Possession 42%
19 Shots 8
4 Shots on target 4
10 Blocked shots 0
1 Goalkeeper saves 3
4 Corners 3
7 Offside 1
19 Free kicks against 15
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

25. Sep -25 Aston Villa – Bologna 1–0 22. Oct -24 Aston Villa – Bologna 2–0

Match report

Bologna Aston Villa
Jhon Lucumí 🟨
14′
Ezri Konsa ℹ️
VAR: Goal cancelled
28′
44′
⚽ E. Konsa 0–1
Y. Tielemans
Half-time 0–2
51′
⚽ O. Watkins 0–2
E. Buendia
Tommaso Pobega 🟨
65′
N. Moro 🔁
↦ T. Pobega
67′
R. Orsolini 🔁
↦ L. Ferguson
67′
80′
🔁 L. Bogarde
↦ A. Onana
J. Odgaard 🔁
↦ S. Castro
82′
85′
🟨 Morgan Rogers
88′
🔁 L. Bailey
↦ E. Buendia
88′
🔁 I. Maatsen
↦ M. Rogers
N. Cambiaghi 🔁
↦ R. Freuler
90′
1–2 J. Rowe ⚽
J. Lucumi
90′
90′
⚽ O. Watkins 1–3
Y. Tielemans
Full-time 1–3

Line-ups

Bologna

4-3-3
13 F. Ravaglia G
17 Joao Mario D
14 T. Heggem D
26 J. Lucumi D
33 J. Miranda D
19 L. Ferguson M
8 R. Freuler M
4 T. Pobega M
10 F. Bernardeschi F
9 S. Castro F
11 J. Rowe F
Bench (10)
25 M. Pessina
82 M. Franceschelli
6 N. Moro
7 R. Orsolini
20 N. Zortea
28 N. Cambiaghi
73 F. Castaldo
21 J. Odgaard
16 N. Casale
23 S. Sohm

Coach: Vincenzo Italiano

Aston Villa

4-2-3-1
23 E. Martinez G
2 M. Cash D
4 E. Konsa D
14 P. Torres D
12 L. Digne D
24 A. Onana M
8 Y. Tielemans M
7 J. McGinn M
27 M. Rogers M
10 E. Buendia M
11 O. Watkins F
Bench (11)
40 M. Bizot
64 J. Wright
3 V. Lindelof
5 T. Mings
31 L. Bailey
21 Douglas Luiz
22 I. Maatsen
9 H. Elliott
26 L. Bogarde
18 T. Abraham
16 A. Garcia

Coach: Unai Emery

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.