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Europa League
Referee: José María Sánchez Martínez
Lille
T S S S U
0–1
Full-time
Aston Villa
S T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lille Aston Villa
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
50%
17%
Points per game
1,8
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 17%
0%
33%
Both score Ø 50%
33%
67%
Average goals
1,5
2,7
Scored
1,0
0,8
Conceded
0,5
1,8
Goal diff per game
+0,5
-1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 10/8 matches
Win Ø 69%
50%
88%
Points per game
1,5
2,6
Over 2.5 Ø 45%
40%
50%
Both score Ø 40%
30%
50%
Average goals
2,4
2,5
Scored
1,4
1,8
Conceded
1,0
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,4
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,32 xG 0,51
49% Possession 51%
7 Shots 9
3 Shots on target 1
2 Blocked shots 3
0 Goalkeeper saves 3
3 Corners 2
5 Offside 1
11 Free kicks against 12
0 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

18. Apr -24 Lille – Aston Villa 2–1 11. Apr -24 Aston Villa – Lille 2–1

Match report

Lille Aston Villa
Half-time 0–0
A. Bouaddi 🔁
↦ B. Andre
46′
M. Fernandez-Pardo 🔁
↦ G. Perrin
52′
61′
⚽ O. Watkins 0–1
E. Buendia
T. Meunier 🔁
↦ T. Santos
66′
F. Correia 🔁
↦ N. Mukau
66′
77′
🔁 J. McGinn
↦ Douglas Luiz
77′
🔁 T. Abraham
↦ O. Watkins
S. Diaoune 🔁
↦ H. Haraldsson
83′
83′
🔁 L. Bailey
↦ E. Buendia
83′
🔁 I. Maatsen
↦ J. Sancho
88′
🟨 Emiliano Martínez
90′
🔁 H. Elliott
↦ M. Rogers
92′
🟨 Lucas Digne
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Lille

4-2-3-1
1 B. Ozer G
22 T. Santos D
18 C. Mbemba D
23 A. Mandi D
15 R. Perraud D
21 B. Andre M
6 N. Bentaleb M
17 N. Mukau M
10 H. Haraldsson M
28 G. Perrin M
9 O. Giroud F
Bench (12)
16 A. Bodart
60 Z. Lanssade
4 Alexsandro
3 N. Ngoy
7 M. Fernandez-Pardo
20 N. Edjouma
35 S. Diaoune
12 T. Meunier
24 C. Verdonk
27 F. Correia
32 A. Bouaddi
42 S. Boussadia

Coach: Bruno Genesio

Aston Villa

4-2-3-1
23 E. Martinez G
26 L. Bogarde D
4 E. Konsa D
14 P. Torres D
12 L. Digne D
21 Douglas Luiz M
24 A. Onana M
19 J. Sancho M
27 M. Rogers M
10 E. Buendia M
11 O. Watkins F
Bench (10)
40 M. Bizot
64 J. Wright
3 V. Lindelof
5 T. Mings
31 L. Bailey
22 I. Maatsen
9 H. Elliott
7 J. McGinn
18 T. Abraham
16 A. Garcia

Coach: Unai Emery

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

José María Sánchez Martínez · 115 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,5 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
23,4 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,27 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.