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Conference League
Referee: Carlos del Cerro
Fiorentina
S U T S S
1–2
Full-time
West Ham
S T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina West Ham
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
67%
67%
Points per game
2,2
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 67%
83%
50%
Average goals
3,0
2,3
Scored
2,0
1,3
Conceded
1,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Conference League · 16/14 matches
Win Ø 81%
69%
93%
Points per game
2,2
2,9
Over 2.5 Ø 73%
81%
64%
Both score Ø 57%
63%
50%
Average goals
3,4
2,9
Scored
2,4
2,4
Conceded
1,1
0,6
Goal diff per game
+1,3
+1,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,30 xG 1,39
68% Possession 32%
17 Shots 8
4 Shots on target 4
5 Blocked shots 2
2 Goalkeeper saves 3
3 Corners 4
2 Offside 3
15 Free kicks against 16
4 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Fiorentina West Ham
Alfred Duncan 🟨
-5′
-5′
🟨 Aaron Cresswell
31′
🟨 Saïd Benrahma
Half-time 0–0
Arthur Cabral 🔁
↦ L. Jović
46′
53′
🟨 Nayef Aguerd
59′
ℹ️ Jarrod Bowen
VAR: Penalty confirmed
R. Saponara 🔁
↦ C. Kouamé
61′
61′
🔁 T. Kehrer
↦ K. Zouma
62′
⚽ S. Benrahma 0–1
Rolando Mandragora 🟨
66′
1–1 G. Bonaventura ⚽
N. González
67′
Nikola Milenković 🟨
75′
76′
🔁 Pablo Fornals
↦ S. Benrahma
Igor 🔁
↦ L. Ranieri
84′
Sofyan Amrabat 🟨
85′
90′
⚽ J. Bowen 1–2
Lucas Paquetá
A. Barák 🔁
↦ R. Mandragora
93′
94′
🔁 A. Ogbonna
↦ M. Antonio
97′
🟨 Jarrod Bowen
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Fiorentina

4-3-3
1 P. Terracciano G
2 Dodô D
4 N. Milenković D
16 L. Ranieri D
3 C. Biraghi D
5 G. Bonaventura M
34 S. Amrabat M
38 R. Mandragora M
22 N. González F
7 L. Jović F
99 C. Kouamé F
Bench (12)
9 Arthur Cabral
8 R. Saponara
98 Igor
72 A. Barák
15 A. Terzić
31 M. Cerofolini
28 L. Martínez
77 J. Brekalo
32 A. Duncan
23 L. Venuti
42 A. Bianco
11 J. Ikoné

Coach: V. Italiano

West Ham

4-2-3-1
13 A. Aréola G
5 V. Coufal D
4 K. Zouma D
27 N. Aguerd D
33 Emerson D
28 T. Souček M
41 D. Rice M
20 J. Bowen M
11 Lucas Paquetá M
22 S. Benrahma M
9 M. Antonio F
Bench (12)
24 T. Kehrer
8 Pablo Fornals
21 A. Ogbonna
14 M. Cornet
12 F. Downes
18 D. Ings
2 B. Johnson
1 Ł. Fabiański
3 A. Cresswell
10 M. Lanzini
72 D. Mubama
62 F. Potts

Coach: D. Moyes

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Carlos del Cerro · 93 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,8 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
26,4 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,26 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.