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Serie A

Referee: G Ayroldi

Fiorentina

T S S U T

2–1

Full-time

Roma

T S U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Roma

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,5

1,5

Scored

1,3

0,7

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 36/36 matches

Win Ø 42%

36%

47%

Points per game

1,4

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 39%

39%

Both score Ø 49%

53%

44%

Average goals

2,5

2,3

Scored

1,3

Conceded

1,1

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,50 xG 1,24

66% Possession 34%

15 Shots 8

5 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 4

0 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 12

5 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fiorentina 10. · Roma 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	36	27	5	4	+47	+12.4	86
2	Juventus	36	21	6	9	+23	+7.3	69
3	Lazio	36	20	8	8	+27	+3.9	68
4	Inter	36	21	3	12	+27	+16.8	66
5	Milan	36	18	10	8	+18	+5.8	64
6	Atalanta	36	18	7	11	+16	+4.2	61
7	Roma	36	17	9	10	+12	+7.9	60
8	Torino	37	14	11	12	+2	+4.6	53
9	Monza	36	14	10	12	+0	-3.0	52
10	Fiorentina	36	13	11	12	+7	+7.1	50
11	Bologna	36	13	11	12	+3	-1.1	50
12	Udinese	37	11	13	13	+0	-5.1	46
13	Sassuolo	37	12	9	16	-12	+4.6	45
14	Empoli	36	10	12	14	-10	-6.3	42
15	Salernitana	37	9	15	13	-12	-14.3	42
16	Lecce	36	7	12	17	-13	-0.0	33
17	Spezia	36	6	12	18	-30	-5.6	30
18	Verona	35	7	8	20	-26	-8.0	29
19	Cremonese	36	4	12	20	-34	-13.1	24
20	Sampdoria	37	3	10	24	-45	-18.0	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	18	13	3	2	+24	+6.0	42
2	Napoli	18	13	3	2	+23	+5.9	42
3	Milan	18	12	4	2	+19	+7.7	40
4	Inter	18	13	0	5	+22	+8.6	39
5	Lazio	18	10	4	4	+13	+1.6	34
6	Roma	18	10	3	5	+12	+2.4	33
7	Atalanta	18	9	3	6	+9	+5.7	30
8	Fiorentina	18	8	6	4	+7	+9.1	30
9	Bologna	18	7	8	3	+10	-1.3	29
10	Sassuolo	18	8	4	6	+3	+1.5	28
11	Empoli	18	8	4	6	+1	+0.1	28
12	Udinese	18	6	9	3	+11	+2.3	27
13	Salernitana	19	7	6	6	+4	-7.2	27
14	Monza	18	7	5	6	+4	+1.1	26
15	Torino	18	5	7	6	-3	+2.4	22
16	Verona	18	6	2	10	-12	-5.2	20
17	Spezia	18	4	7	7	-12	-5.0	19
18	Lecce	18	3	8	7	-5	+2.2	17
19	Cremonese	18	3	4	11	-18	-6.1	13
20	Sampdoria	19	1	7	11	-16	-3.4	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	18	14	2	2	+24	+6.5	44
2	Lazio	18	10	4	4	+14	+2.3	34
3	Atalanta	18	9	4	5	+7	-1.5	31
4	Torino	19	9	4	6	+5	+2.2	31
5	Inter	18	8	3	7	+5	+8.1	27
6	Roma	18	7	6	5	+0	+5.5	27
7	Juventus	18	8	3	7	-1	+1.4	27
8	Monza	18	7	5	6	-4	-4.1	26
9	Milan	18	6	6	6	-1	-1.9	24
10	Bologna	18	6	3	9	-7	+0.2	21
11	Fiorentina	18	5	5	8	+0	-2.0	20
12	Udinese	19	5	4	10	-11	-7.4	19
13	Sassuolo	19	4	5	10	-15	+3.2	17
14	Lecce	18	4	4	10	-8	-2.3	16
15	Salernitana	18	2	9	7	-16	-7.1	15
16	Empoli	18	2	8	8	-11	-6.4	14
17	Cremonese	18	1	8	9	-16	-7.1	11
18	Spezia	18	2	5	11	-18	-0.6	11
19	Verona	17	1	6	10	-14	-2.8	9
20	Sampdoria	18	2	3	13	-29	-14.5	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.