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Conference League
Referee: José Sánchez
Basel
S S T S T
1–3
Full-time
Fiorentina
S U T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Basel Fiorentina
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
50%
33%
Points per game
1,5
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
67%
33%
Average goals
3,7
2,8
Scored
1,5
1,8
Conceded
2,2
1,0
Goal diff per game
-0,7
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Conference League · 19/15 matches
Win Ø 57%
47%
67%
Points per game
1,7
2,1
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
53%
80%
Both score Ø 59%
58%
60%
Average goals
2,7
3,4
Scored
1,6
2,3
Conceded
1,2
1,1
Goal diff per game
+0,4
+1,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,55 xG 4,30
33% Possession 67%
10 Shots 27
3 Shots on target 11
3 Blocked shots 6
8 Goalkeeper saves 2
2 Corners 14
1 Offside 2
16 Free kicks against 24
1 Yellow cards 6
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

11. May -23 Fiorentina – Basel 1–2

Match report

Basel Fiorentina
21′
🟨 Igor Júlio
35′
⚽ N. González 0–1
C. Biraghi
Half-time 0–1
46′
🔁 J. Ikoné
↦ J. Brekalo
1–1 Z. Amdouni ⚽
A. Pelmard
55′
56′
🔁 L. Ranieri
↦ Igor
59′
🟨 Luca Ranieri
72′
⚽ N. González 1–2
A. Zeqiri 🔁
↦ J. Augustin
81′
F. Frei 🔁
↦ T. Xhaka
88′
89′
🟨 Nicolás González
Wouter Burger 🟨
90′
90′
🔁 L. Jović
↦ Arthur Cabral
95′
🟨 Jonathan Ikoné
104′
🟨 Giacomo Bonaventura
D. Males 🔁
↦ W. Burger
105′
105′
🔁 A. Barák
↦ G. Bonaventura
122′
🔁 R. Mandragora
↦ G. Castrovilli
129′
⚽ A. Barák 1–3
130′
🟨 Antonín Barák
Full-time 1–3

Line-ups

Basel

5-3-2
1 M. Hitz G
27 D. Ndoye D
5 M. Lang D
15 K. Adams D
21 A. Pelmard D
33 R. Calafiori D
8 A. Diouf M
34 T. Xhaka M
23 W. Burger M
10 J. Augustin F
9 Z. Amdouni F
Bench (11)
17 A. Zeqiri
20 F. Frei
19 D. Males
28 H. Vogel
14 B. Fink
30 A. Kade
18 E. Essiam
16 N. de Mol
90 Hugo Novoa
13 M. Salvi
7 L. Millar

Coach: H. Vogel

Fiorentina

4-3-3
1 P. Terracciano G
2 Dodô D
4 N. Milenković D
98 Igor D
3 C. Biraghi D
5 G. Bonaventura M
34 S. Amrabat M
10 G. Castrovilli M
22 N. González F
9 Arthur Cabral F
77 J. Brekalo F
Bench (12)
11 J. Ikoné
16 L. Ranieri
7 L. Jović
72 A. Barák
38 R. Mandragora
23 L. Venuti
32 A. Duncan
33 R. Sottil
99 C. Kouamé
8 R. Saponara
31 M. Cerofolini
28 L. Martínez

Coach: V. Italiano

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

José Sánchez · 156 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,2 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
26,5 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.