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Conference League
Referee: João Pedro Pinheiro
Fiorentina
S S U S U
2–2
Full-time
Celje
U S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Celje
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
67%
50%
Points per game
2,3
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
2,5
4,0
Scored
1,8
2,2
Conceded
0,7
1,8
Goal diff per game
+1,2
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Conference League · 11/13 matches
Win Ø 47%
55%
38%
Points per game
1,9
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 71%
73%
69%
Both score Ø 76%
82%
69%
Average goals
4,1
3,9
Scored
2,6
2,1
Conceded
1,5
1,8
Goal diff per game
+1,2
+0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,81 xG 0,91
37% Possession 63%
10 Shots 12
5 Shots on target 4
2 Blocked shots 4
2 Goalkeeper saves 3
6 Corners 4
5 Offside 1
17 Free kicks against 10
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

10. Apr -25 Celje – Fiorentina 1–2

Match report

Fiorentina Celje
1–0 R. Mandragora ⚽
M. Pongračić
37′
Half-time 1–1
54′
⚽ A. Matko 1–1
M. Zabukovnik
Michael Folorunsho 🟨
55′
Rolando Mandragora 🟨
61′
65′
⚽ K. Nemanič 1–2
S. Sešlar
2–2 M. Kean ⚽
R. Mandragora
67′
Moise Kean ℹ️
VAR: Goal confirmed
69′
Luca Ranieri ℹ️
VAR: Goal cancelled
79′
A. Richardson 🔁
↦ N. Fagioli
80′
R. Gosens 🔁
↦ F. Parisi
81′
Y. Adli 🔁
↦ R. Mandragora
90′
L. Beltrán 🔁
↦ A. Guðmundsson
90′
90′
🔁 Edmilson
↦ A. Matko
95′
🟨 Damjan Vuklišević
Full-time 2–2

Line-ups

Fiorentina

3-5-2
43 David de Gea G
5 M. Pongračić D
15 P. Comuzzo D
6 L. Ranieri D
90 M. Folorunsho M
8 R. Mandragora M
32 D. Cataldi M
44 N. Fagioli M
65 F. Parisi M
20 M. Kean F
10 A. Guðmundsson F
Bench (10)
24 A. Richardson
21 R. Gosens
29 Y. Adli
9 L. Beltrán
61 L. Baroncelli
64 J. Harder
67 L. Romani
63 M. Caprini
30 T. Martinelli
1 P. Terracciano

Coach: R. Palladino

Celje

3-4-1-2
41 Ricardo Silva G
2 Juanjo Nieto D
3 D. Vukliševič D
81 K. Nemanič D
7 A. Matko M
19 M. Zabukovnik M
88 T. Svetlin M
23 Ž. Karničnik M
11 S. Sešlar F
35 L. Delaurier-Chaubet F
16 M. Kvesić F
Bench (10)
30 Edmilson
17 S. Gobec
10 N. Kouter
44 Ł. Bejger
5 C. Lhernault
4 M. Dulca
22 M. Rožman
12 L. Kolar
20 N. Iosifov
38 Z. Žužek

Coach: Albert Riera

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

João Pedro Pinheiro · 221 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
28,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.