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Serie A

Referee: D Doveri

Fiorentina

S T T S S

1–0

Full-time

Atalanta

T S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Atalanta

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

2,8

2,5

Scored

1,7

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 54%

48%

59%

Points per game

1,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

59%

Both score Ø 52%

52%

Average goals

2,6

3,1

Scored

1,6

2,2

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,6

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,61 xG 1,22

45% Possession 55%

12 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 0

1 Blocked shots 6

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 4

2 Offside 2

7 Free kicks against 16

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fiorentina 8. · Atalanta 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	29	19	7	3	+38	+29.1	64
2	Napoli	29	18	7	4	+22	+19.4	61
3	Atalanta	29	17	7	5	+35	+22.6	58
4	Bologna	30	15	11	4	+16	+12.6	56
5	Juventus	30	14	13	3	+18	+13.1	55
6	Roma	30	15	7	8	+15	+11.3	52
7	Lazio	29	15	6	8	+9	+11.6	51
8	Fiorentina	29	14	6	9	+16	+4.8	48
9	Milan	29	13	8	8	+11	+17.1	47
10	Udinese	29	11	7	11	-4	-7.2	40
11	Torino	29	9	11	9	+0	-13.7	38
12	Genoa	30	8	11	11	-10	-6.8	35
13	Como	30	7	9	14	-11	+0.7	30
14	Cagliari	30	7	8	15	-13	-10.6	29
15	Verona	29	9	2	18	-29	-16.8	29
16	Parma	29	5	10	14	-14	-14.4	25
17	Lecce	30	6	7	17	-28	-21.5	25
18	Empoli	30	4	11	15	-23	-15.0	23
19	Venezia	30	3	11	16	-20	-18.1	20
20	Monza	30	2	9	19	-28	-18.1	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	14	10	3	1	+16	+13.6	33
2	Bologna	15	9	5	1	+16	+15.0	32
3	Napoli	14	10	2	2	+11	+15.7	32
4	Roma	15	10	1	4	+18	+9.2	31
5	Juventus	16	8	7	1	+11	+8.4	31
6	Fiorentina	15	9	3	3	+11	+7.5	30
7	Milan	15	7	6	2	+11	+10.0	27
8	Lazio	14	7	5	2	+8	+8.4	26
9	Atalanta	14	7	4	3	+11	+10.0	25
10	Udinese	15	7	2	6	+1	-3.2	23
11	Torino	14	5	5	4	+1	-6.4	20
12	Como	15	5	5	5	+0	+2.0	20
13	Genoa	15	4	7	4	-1	-1.8	19
14	Cagliari	16	5	4	7	-5	-1.3	19
15	Parma	15	4	4	7	-3	-2.1	16
16	Venezia	15	3	5	7	-4	-2.8	14
17	Lecce	15	3	5	7	-15	-8.2	14
18	Verona	14	4	1	9	-19	-5.3	13
19	Monza	15	1	5	9	-9	-4.8	8
20	Empoli	14	1	5	8	-15	-7.2	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Atalanta	15	10	3	2	+24	+12.6	33
2	Inter	15	9	4	2	+22	+15.5	31
3	Napoli	15	8	5	2	+11	+3.6	29
4	Lazio	15	8	1	6	+1	+3.2	25
5	Juventus	14	6	6	2	+7	+4.7	24
6	Bologna	15	6	6	3	+0	-2.4	24
7	Roma	15	5	6	4	-3	+2.1	21
8	Milan	14	6	2	6	+0	+7.1	20
9	Fiorentina	14	5	3	6	+5	-2.7	18
10	Torino	15	4	6	5	-1	-7.3	18
11	Udinese	14	4	5	5	-5	-4.0	17
12	Genoa	15	4	4	7	-9	-5.1	16
13	Verona	15	5	1	9	-10	-11.5	16
14	Empoli	16	3	6	7	-8	-7.8	15
15	Lecce	15	3	2	10	-13	-13.3	11
16	Cagliari	14	2	4	8	-8	-9.3	10
17	Como	15	2	4	9	-11	-1.2	10
18	Parma	14	1	6	7	-11	-12.4	9
19	Monza	15	1	4	10	-19	-13.3	7
20	Venezia	15	0	6	9	-16	-15.3	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.