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Premier League

Referee: Mike Jones

Burnley

T S T U T

2–0

Full-time

Watford

U T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Burnley Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

17%

100%

Average goals

2,3

3,8

Scored

1,0

2,0

Conceded

1,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,2

This season — Premier League · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 30%

20%

40%

Points per game

0,8

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

40%

80%

Both score Ø 60%

20%

100%

Average goals

2,2

3,8

Scored

0,6

2,0

Conceded

1,6

1,8

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

43% Possession 57%

13 Shots 12

4 Shots on target 2

6 Blocked shots 6

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 6

5 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Burnley 17. · Watford 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	6	6	0	0	+13	18
2	Tottenham	6	4	2	0	+7	14
3	Arsenal	6	4	1	1	+8	13
4	Liverpool	6	4	1	1	+7	13
5	Everton	6	4	1	1	+6	13
6	Man United	6	4	0	2	+5	12
7	Crystal Palace	6	3	1	2	+3	10
8	Chelsea	6	3	1	2	+1	10
9	Southampton	6	2	2	2	+1	8
10	West Brom	6	2	2	2	+1	8
11	Watford	5	2	1	2	+1	7
12	Leicester	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Hull	6	2	1	3	-5	7
14	Bournemouth	6	2	1	3	-5	7
15	Middlesbrough	6	1	2	3	-3	5
16	Swansea	6	1	1	4	-5	4
17	Burnley	5	1	1	3	-5	4
18	West Ham	6	1	0	5	-9	3
19	Stoke	6	0	2	4	-11	2
20	Sunderland	6	0	1	5	-7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	3	3	0	0	+7	9
2	Leicester	3	2	1	0	+4	7
3	Everton	3	2	1	0	+3	7
4	Tottenham	3	2	1	0	+2	7
5	Liverpool	2	2	0	0	+7	6
6	Man United	3	2	0	1	+4	6
7	Arsenal	3	2	0	1	+3	6
8	Chelsea	3	2	0	1	+3	6
9	Bournemouth	3	2	0	1	+0	6
10	Southampton	3	1	2	0	+1	5
11	Crystal Palace	3	1	1	1	+2	4
12	West Brom	3	1	1	1	+1	4
13	Burnley	3	1	1	1	+1	4
14	Watford	3	1	0	2	-1	3
15	Hull	3	1	0	2	-3	3
16	West Ham	3	1	0	2	-4	3
17	Middlesbrough	3	0	1	2	-2	1
18	Swansea	3	0	1	2	-4	1
19	Stoke	3	0	1	2	-7	1
20	Sunderland	3	0	0	3	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	3	3	0	0	+6	9
2	Tottenham	3	2	1	0	+5	7
3	Arsenal	3	2	1	0	+5	7
4	Liverpool	4	2	1	1	+0	7
5	Everton	3	2	0	1	+3	6
6	Man United	3	2	0	1	+1	6
7	Crystal Palace	3	2	0	1	+1	6
8	Watford	2	1	1	0	+2	4
9	West Brom	3	1	1	1	+0	4
10	Middlesbrough	3	1	1	1	-1	4
11	Hull	3	1	1	1	-2	4
12	Chelsea	3	1	1	1	-2	4
13	Southampton	3	1	0	2	+0	3
14	Swansea	3	1	0	2	-1	3
15	Sunderland	3	0	1	2	-2	1
16	Stoke	3	0	1	2	-4	1
17	Bournemouth	3	0	1	2	-5	1
18	West Ham	3	0	0	3	-5	0
19	Burnley	2	0	0	2	-6	0
20	Leicester	3	0	0	3	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.