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Premier League

Referee: Lee Mason

Burnley

U S S S T

2–0

Full-time

Liverpool

T S U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Burnley Liverpool

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

1,8

3,5

Scored

1,3

1,8

Conceded

0,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,2

This season — Premier League · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 50%

100%

Points per game

0,0

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

1,0

7,0

Scored

0,0

4,0

Conceded

1,0

3,0

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

19% Possession 81%

3 Shots 26

2 Shots on target 5

0 Blocked shots 8

5 Goalkeeper saves 0

1 Corners 12

3 Offside 0

14 Free kicks against 5

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Burnley 18. · Liverpool 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	2	2	0	0	+4	6
2	Man United	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+1	3
4	Chelsea	1	1	0	0	+1	3
5	Hull	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Swansea	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Watford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
9	Everton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Tottenham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Middlesbrough	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Southampton	2	0	1	1	-2	1
13	Stoke	2	0	1	1	-3	1
14	Arsenal	1	0	0	1	-1	0
15	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	West Ham	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Leicester	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Burnley	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Crystal Palace	1	0	0	1	-1	0
20	Bournemouth	1	0	0	1	-2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	1	1	0	0	+2	3
2	Man City	1	1	0	0	+1	3
3	Chelsea	1	1	0	0	+1	3
4	Hull	1	1	0	0	+1	3
5	Southampton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
6	Everton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
7	Middlesbrough	1	0	1	0	+0	1
8	Arsenal	1	0	0	1	-1	0
9	Burnley	1	0	0	1	-1	0
10	Crystal Palace	1	0	0	1	-1	0
11	Bournemouth	1	0	0	1	-2	0
12	Stoke	1	0	0	1	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	1	1	0	0	+3	3
2	Man United	1	1	0	0	+2	3
3	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+1	3
4	Swansea	1	1	0	0	+1	3
5	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Watford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
7	Tottenham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
8	Stoke	1	0	1	0	+0	1
9	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-1	0
10	West Ham	1	0	0	1	-1	0
11	Leicester	1	0	0	1	-1	0
12	Southampton	1	0	0	1	-2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.