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Primeira Liga
Referee: Rui Manuel Gomes Costa
Belenenses
T U S S U
1–1
Full-time
Arouca
T S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Belenenses Arouca
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
50%
17%
Points per game
1,8
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 33%
33%
33%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
1,8
2,3
Scored
1,0
0,8
Conceded
0,8
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,2
-0,7
This season — Primeira Liga · 5/5 matches
Win Ø 30%
40%
20%
Points per game
1,6
0,6
Over 2.5 Ø 20%
20%
20%
Both score Ø 30%
40%
20%
Average goals
1,6
2,0
Scored
0,8
0,6
Conceded
0,8
1,4
Goal diff per game
+0,0
-0,8
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

50% Possession 50%
11 Shots 7
2 Shots on target 1
5 Blocked shots 1
0 Goalkeeper saves 1
7 Corners 7
1 Offside 1
13 Free kicks against 12
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Belenenses 11. · Arouca 17.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Benfica 6 5 1 0 +9 16
2 Sp Lisbon 6 5 0 1 +7 15
3 Porto 6 4 1 1 +7 13
4 Sp Braga 6 4 1 1 +5 13
5 Guimaraes 6 3 1 2 +1 10
6 Rio Ave 6 3 1 2 +1 10
7 Chaves 6 2 3 1 +0 9
8 Feirense 6 3 0 3 -3 9
9 Pacos Ferreira 6 2 2 2 +1 8
10 Vitoria Setubal 6 2 2 2 +0 8
11 Belenenses 5 2 2 1 +0 8
12 Nacional 6 2 0 4 -1 6
13 Maritimo 6 2 0 4 -4 6
14 Boavista 6 1 2 3 -4 5
15 Moreirense 6 1 1 4 -4 4
16 Estoril 6 1 1 4 -5 4
17 Arouca 5 1 0 4 -4 3
18 Tondela 6 0 2 4 -6 2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Belenenses Arouca
1–0 Camará
Gerso Fernandes
15′
28′
🟨 Adilson Goiano
35′
🟨 Nuno Coelho
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 Kuca
↦ Walter González
50′
Kuca 1–1
Artur Moreira
Sturgeon 🔁
↦ Miguel Rosa
67′
Vitor Gomes 🟨
70′
73′
🔁 M. de Jesús
↦ Artur Moreira
K. Andrić 🔁
↦ Vitor Gomes
79′
Oriol Rosell 🟨
80′
86′
🔁 Crivellaro
↦ Nuno Valente
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Belenenses

4-2-3-1
24 Hugo Ventura G
28 Gonçalo Brandão D
2 João Diogo D
29 F. Hanin D
14 Domingos Duarte D
25 Vitor Gomes M
6 Oriol Rosell M
66 João Palhinha M
7 Miguel Rosa M
30 Camará F
10 Gerso Fernandes F
Bench (7)
17 Sturgeon
95 K. Andrić
12 Joel Castro
4 Dinis Almeida
8 André Sousa
27 Luís Silva
37 Gonçalo Silva

Coach: Julio Velázquez

Arouca

4-2-3-1
1 Rafael Bracalli G
5 Anderson Luis D
4 J. Velázquez D
16 Thiago Carleto M
33 Jubal D
7 Artur Moreira M
66 Nuno Coelho M
8 Adilson Goiano M
10 Nuno Valente M
87 Zequinha M
95 Walter González F
Bench (7)
17 Kuca
9 M. de Jesús
50 Crivellaro
3 Hugo Basto
13 Rui Sacramento
14 Gêgê
26 André Santos

Coach: Lito Vidigal

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Rui Manuel Gomes Costa · 66 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
26,8 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,15 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.