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Premier League

Referee: Craig Pawson

Chelsea

S S T S S

3–0

Full-time

Middlesbrough

U T T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Middlesbrough

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,5

3,0

Scored

2,2

1,0

Conceded

1,3

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-1,0

This season — Premier League · 34/35 matches

Win Ø 45%

76%

14%

Points per game

2,4

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

68%

40%

Both score Ø 47%

50%

43%

Average goals

3,0

2,0

Scored

2,1

0,7

Conceded

0,9

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

57% Possession 43%

21 Shots 2

7 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 1

0 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 21

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chelsea 1. · Middlesbrough 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	34	26	3	5	+43	81
2	Tottenham	35	23	8	4	+48	77
3	Liverpool	36	20	10	6	+29	70
4	Man City	35	20	9	6	+33	69
5	Man United	35	17	14	4	+24	65
6	Arsenal	34	19	6	9	+24	63
7	Everton	36	16	10	10	+19	58
8	West Brom	35	12	9	14	-4	45
9	Leicester	35	12	7	16	-9	43
10	Southampton	34	11	9	14	-5	42
11	Bournemouth	36	11	9	16	-13	42
12	West Ham	36	11	9	16	-14	42
13	Stoke	36	10	11	15	-13	41
14	Burnley	36	11	7	18	-14	40
15	Watford	35	11	7	17	-21	40
16	Crystal Palace	36	11	5	20	-15	38
17	Swansea	36	10	5	21	-28	35
18	Hull	36	9	7	20	-33	34
19	Middlesbrough	35	5	13	17	-19	28
20	Sunderland	35	6	6	23	-32	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	18	16	2	0	+37	50
2	Chelsea	16	14	0	2	+30	42
3	Everton	18	12	4	2	+25	40
4	Arsenal	17	12	3	2	+19	39
5	Liverpool	18	11	5	2	+24	38
6	Man City	17	9	7	1	+17	34
7	Leicester	17	10	3	4	+11	33
8	Burnley	18	10	3	5	+7	33
9	Man United	18	7	10	1	+12	31
10	West Brom	18	9	2	7	+6	29
11	Bournemouth	18	8	4	6	+5	28
12	Watford	18	8	4	6	+1	28
13	Hull	18	8	4	6	-1	28
14	Stoke	18	7	6	5	+3	27
15	West Ham	18	7	4	7	-8	25
16	Swansea	18	7	3	8	-8	24
17	Southampton	16	6	5	5	-1	23
18	Middlesbrough	18	4	6	8	-5	18
19	Crystal Palace	18	5	2	11	-5	17
20	Sunderland	18	3	5	10	-16	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	18	12	3	3	+13	39
2	Man City	18	11	2	5	+16	35
3	Man United	17	10	4	3	+12	34
4	Liverpool	18	9	5	4	+5	32
5	Tottenham	17	7	6	4	+11	27
6	Arsenal	17	7	3	7	+5	24
7	Crystal Palace	18	6	3	9	-10	21
8	Southampton	18	5	4	9	-4	19
9	Everton	18	4	6	8	-6	18
10	West Ham	18	4	5	9	-6	17
11	West Brom	17	3	7	7	-10	16
12	Stoke	18	3	5	10	-16	14
13	Bournemouth	18	3	5	10	-18	14
14	Watford	17	3	3	11	-22	12
15	Swansea	18	3	2	13	-20	11
16	Middlesbrough	17	1	7	9	-14	10
17	Sunderland	17	3	1	13	-16	10
18	Leicester	18	2	4	12	-20	10
19	Burnley	18	1	4	13	-21	7
20	Hull	18	1	3	14	-32	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.