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Premier League

Referee: Mike Dean

Chelsea

U S S S T

2–1

Full-time

Man City

S S U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Man City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 75%

100%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,2

Scored

2,0

1,5

Conceded

1,2

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,8

This season — Premier League · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 68%

76%

59%

Points per game

2,4

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 66%

66%

Both score Ø 55%

48%

62%

Average goals

2,9

3,0

Scored

2,1

1,9

Conceded

0,8

1,1

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

39% Possession 61%

10 Shots 17

4 Shots on target 7

3 Blocked shots 4

6 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 9

1 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chelsea 1. · Man City 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	29	22	3	4	+37	69
2	Tottenham	30	19	8	3	+38	65
3	Liverpool	30	17	8	5	+27	59
4	Man City	29	17	7	5	+24	58
5	Arsenal	29	16	6	7	+25	54
6	Man United	29	14	12	3	+19	54
7	Everton	31	14	9	8	+19	51
8	West Brom	31	12	8	11	-1	44
9	Southampton	29	10	7	12	-1	37
10	Watford	30	10	7	13	-12	37
11	Leicester	30	10	6	14	-10	36
12	Stoke	31	9	9	13	-12	36
13	Burnley	31	10	5	16	-12	35
14	Bournemouth	30	9	7	14	-12	34
15	West Ham	31	9	6	16	-16	33
16	Crystal Palace	30	9	4	17	-11	31
17	Hull	31	8	6	17	-29	30
18	Swansea	31	8	4	19	-29	28
19	Middlesbrough	30	4	11	15	-15	23
20	Sunderland	30	5	5	20	-29	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	15	13	2	0	+27	41
2	Chelsea	14	12	0	2	+27	36
3	Liverpool	15	11	3	1	+25	36
4	Everton	15	10	4	1	+24	34
5	Arsenal	15	10	3	2	+16	33
6	Burnley	16	10	2	4	+9	32
7	Leicester	16	9	3	4	+8	30
8	West Brom	15	9	2	4	+9	29
9	Man City	14	7	6	1	+10	27
10	Man United	16	6	9	1	+10	27
11	Watford	16	7	4	5	+1	25
12	Hull	16	7	4	5	-1	25
13	Bournemouth	15	7	3	5	+3	24
14	Stoke	15	6	5	4	+2	23
15	Southampton	14	6	4	4	+2	22
16	West Ham	15	5	3	7	-10	18
17	Swansea	16	5	3	8	-11	18
18	Crystal Palace	14	4	1	9	-5	13
19	Middlesbrough	14	3	4	7	-5	13
20	Sunderland	15	3	4	8	-12	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	15	10	3	2	+10	33
2	Man City	15	10	1	4	+14	31
3	Man United	13	8	3	2	+9	27
4	Tottenham	15	6	6	3	+11	24
5	Liverpool	15	6	5	4	+2	23
6	Arsenal	14	6	3	5	+9	21
7	Crystal Palace	16	5	3	8	-6	18
8	Everton	16	4	5	7	-5	17
9	Southampton	15	4	3	8	-3	15
10	West Ham	16	4	3	9	-6	15
11	West Brom	16	3	6	7	-10	15
12	Stoke	16	3	4	9	-14	13
13	Watford	14	3	3	8	-13	12
14	Middlesbrough	16	1	7	8	-10	10
15	Bournemouth	15	2	4	9	-15	10
16	Swansea	15	3	1	11	-18	10
17	Sunderland	15	2	1	12	-17	7
18	Leicester	14	1	3	10	-18	6
19	Hull	15	1	2	12	-28	5
20	Burnley	15	0	3	12	-21	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.