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Premier League

Referee: Lee Mason

Chelsea

S T S S T

4–2

Full-time

Southampton

T U S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Southampton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,0

Scored

1,7

1,5

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,0

This season — Premier League · 32/31 matches

Win Ø 55%

75%

35%

Points per game

2,3

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

66%

55%

Both score Ø 48%

50%

45%

Average goals

2,9

2,5

Scored

2,0

1,2

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

47% Possession 53%

17 Shots 12

7 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 7

0 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chelsea 1. · Southampton 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	32	24	3	5	+38	75
2	Tottenham	32	21	8	3	+46	71
3	Liverpool	34	19	9	6	+28	66
4	Man City	32	19	7	6	+28	64
5	Man United	32	17	12	3	+26	63
6	Everton	34	16	10	8	+23	58
7	Arsenal	31	17	6	8	+23	57
8	West Brom	33	12	8	13	-3	44
9	Southampton	31	11	7	13	-3	40
10	Watford	33	11	7	15	-17	40
11	Stoke	34	10	9	15	-13	39
12	Crystal Palace	33	11	5	17	-7	38
13	Bournemouth	34	10	8	16	-14	38
14	West Ham	34	10	8	16	-15	38
15	Leicester	32	10	7	15	-12	37
16	Burnley	34	10	6	18	-16	36
17	Hull	34	9	6	19	-31	33
18	Swansea	34	9	4	21	-29	31
19	Middlesbrough	33	4	12	17	-20	24
20	Sunderland	32	5	6	21	-32	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	17	15	2	0	+35	47
2	Everton	17	12	4	1	+28	40
3	Chelsea	15	13	0	2	+28	39
4	Liverpool	17	11	4	2	+24	37
5	Arsenal	15	10	3	2	+16	33
6	Burnley	17	10	2	5	+7	32
7	Man City	15	8	6	1	+12	30
8	Man United	17	7	9	1	+12	30
9	Leicester	16	9	3	4	+8	30
10	West Brom	17	9	2	6	+7	29
11	Watford	17	8	4	5	+2	28
12	Hull	17	8	4	5	+1	28
13	Bournemouth	17	8	3	6	+5	27
14	Stoke	17	7	5	5	+3	26
15	Southampton	15	6	4	5	-1	22
16	West Ham	17	6	4	7	-9	22
17	Swansea	17	6	3	8	-9	21
18	Crystal Palace	16	5	2	9	-2	17
19	Middlesbrough	16	3	5	8	-6	14
20	Sunderland	17	3	5	9	-15	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	17	11	3	3	+10	36
2	Man City	17	11	1	5	+16	34
3	Man United	15	10	3	2	+14	33
4	Liverpool	17	8	5	4	+4	29
5	Tottenham	15	6	6	3	+11	24
6	Arsenal	16	7	3	6	+7	24
7	Crystal Palace	17	6	3	8	-5	21
8	Southampton	16	5	3	8	-2	18
9	Everton	17	4	6	7	-5	18
10	West Ham	17	4	4	9	-6	16
11	West Brom	16	3	6	7	-10	15
12	Stoke	17	3	4	10	-16	13
13	Watford	16	3	3	10	-19	12
14	Bournemouth	17	2	5	10	-19	11
15	Middlesbrough	17	1	7	9	-14	10
16	Swansea	17	3	1	13	-20	10
17	Sunderland	15	2	1	12	-17	7
18	Leicester	16	1	4	11	-20	7
19	Hull	17	1	2	14	-32	5
20	Burnley	17	0	4	13	-23	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.