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Premier League

Referee: Anthony Taylor

Middlesbrough

T T U T U

1–2

Full-time

Arsenal

T T U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Middlesbrough Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,2

3,3

Scored

0,5

1,5

Conceded

1,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-0,3

This season — Premier League · 31/30 matches

Win Ø 33%

13%

53%

Points per game

0,8

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

35%

73%

Both score Ø 55%

42%

67%

Average goals

1,9

3,3

Scored

0,7

2,0

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

35% Possession 65%

13 Shots 12

5 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

2 Corners 4

3 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 16

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Middlesbrough 19. · Arsenal 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	32	24	3	5	+38	75
2	Tottenham	32	21	8	3	+46	71
3	Liverpool	33	19	9	5	+29	66
4	Man City	32	19	7	6	+28	64
5	Man United	31	16	12	3	+24	60
6	Everton	33	16	9	8	+23	57
7	Arsenal	30	16	6	8	+22	54
8	West Brom	33	12	8	13	-3	44
9	Southampton	31	11	7	13	-3	40
10	Watford	32	11	7	14	-15	40
11	Stoke	33	10	9	14	-11	39
12	Leicester	32	10	7	15	-12	37
13	West Ham	33	10	7	16	-15	37
14	Burnley	33	10	6	17	-14	36
15	Crystal Palace	32	10	5	17	-8	35
16	Bournemouth	33	9	8	16	-18	35
17	Hull	33	8	6	19	-33	30
18	Swansea	33	8	4	21	-31	28
19	Middlesbrough	31	4	12	15	-15	24
20	Sunderland	32	5	6	21	-32	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	17	15	2	0	+35	47
2	Everton	17	12	4	1	+28	40
3	Chelsea	15	13	0	2	+28	39
4	Liverpool	16	11	4	1	+25	37
5	Arsenal	15	10	3	2	+16	33
6	Burnley	16	10	2	4	+9	32
7	Man City	15	8	6	1	+12	30
8	Man United	17	7	9	1	+12	30
9	Leicester	16	9	3	4	+8	30
10	West Brom	17	9	2	6	+7	29
11	Watford	17	8	4	5	+2	28
12	Stoke	17	7	5	5	+3	26
13	Hull	16	7	4	5	-1	25
14	Bournemouth	16	7	3	6	+1	24
15	Southampton	15	6	4	5	-1	22
16	West Ham	16	6	3	7	-9	21
17	Swansea	16	5	3	8	-11	18
18	Crystal Palace	16	5	2	9	-2	17
19	Middlesbrough	15	3	5	7	-5	14
20	Sunderland	17	3	5	9	-15	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	17	11	3	3	+10	36
2	Man City	17	11	1	5	+16	34
3	Man United	14	9	3	2	+12	30
4	Liverpool	17	8	5	4	+4	29
5	Tottenham	15	6	6	3	+11	24
6	Arsenal	15	6	3	6	+6	21
7	Southampton	16	5	3	8	-2	18
8	Crystal Palace	16	5	3	8	-6	18
9	Everton	16	4	5	7	-5	17
10	West Ham	17	4	4	9	-6	16
11	West Brom	16	3	6	7	-10	15
12	Stoke	16	3	4	9	-14	13
13	Watford	15	3	3	9	-17	12
14	Bournemouth	17	2	5	10	-19	11
15	Middlesbrough	16	1	7	8	-10	10
16	Swansea	17	3	1	13	-20	10
17	Sunderland	15	2	1	12	-17	7
18	Leicester	16	1	4	11	-20	7
19	Hull	17	1	2	14	-32	5
20	Burnley	17	0	4	13	-23	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.