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Premier League

Referee: Mike Dean

Southampton

T U T U U

1–1

Full-time

Brighton

T U U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Southampton Brighton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

83%

17%

Average goals

3,0

2,2

Scored

1,2

0,5

Conceded

1,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-1,2

This season — Premier League · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 19%

17%

21%

Points per game

0,9

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 36%

42%

29%

Both score Ø 44%

58%

29%

Average goals

2,5

2,1

Scored

1,0

0,7

Conceded

1,5

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

65% Possession 35%

18 Shots 9

3 Shots on target 2

7 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 2

0 Offside 4

8 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Southampton 19. · Brighton 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	24	21	2	1	+52	65
2	Man United	24	16	5	3	+33	53
3	Chelsea	24	15	5	4	+29	50
4	Liverpool	25	14	8	3	+28	50
5	Tottenham	24	13	6	5	+25	45
6	Arsenal	25	12	6	7	+12	42
7	Leicester	24	9	7	8	+4	34
8	Burnley	24	9	7	8	-2	34
9	Everton	24	7	7	10	-13	28
10	West Ham	25	6	9	10	-12	27
11	Watford	24	7	5	12	-11	26
12	Crystal Palace	25	6	8	11	-15	26
13	Bournemouth	24	6	7	11	-11	25
14	Huddersfield	25	6	6	13	-25	24
15	Newcastle	24	6	5	13	-12	23
16	Brighton	24	5	8	11	-16	23
17	Swansea	25	6	5	14	-18	23
18	Stoke	24	6	5	13	-25	23
19	Southampton	24	4	10	10	-11	22
20	West Brom	24	3	11	10	-12	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	12	11	1	0	+33	34
2	Man United	12	9	2	1	+22	29
3	Arsenal	12	9	2	1	+18	29
4	Liverpool	12	7	5	0	+18	26
5	Chelsea	12	8	2	2	+14	26
6	Tottenham	12	7	4	1	+17	25
7	Leicester	12	6	2	4	+4	20
8	Everton	12	6	2	4	+2	20
9	Burnley	12	5	2	5	-1	17
10	Stoke	12	5	2	5	-5	17
11	Crystal Palace	12	4	4	4	-3	16
12	West Ham	12	4	4	4	-3	16
13	Huddersfield	13	4	4	5	-8	16
14	Bournemouth	12	4	3	5	-2	15
15	Brighton	12	3	6	3	-6	15
16	Southampton	13	3	5	5	-3	14
17	Swansea	13	4	2	7	-8	14
18	West Brom	12	2	7	3	-3	13
19	Watford	12	3	4	5	-9	13
20	Newcastle	12	3	3	6	-4	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	12	10	1	1	+19	31
2	Chelsea	12	7	3	2	+15	24
3	Man United	12	7	3	2	+11	24
4	Liverpool	13	7	3	3	+10	24
5	Tottenham	12	6	2	4	+8	20
6	Burnley	12	4	5	3	-1	17
7	Leicester	12	3	5	4	+0	14
8	Watford	12	4	1	7	-2	13
9	Arsenal	13	3	4	6	-6	13
10	Newcastle	12	3	2	7	-8	11
11	West Ham	13	2	5	6	-9	11
12	Bournemouth	12	2	4	6	-9	10
13	Crystal Palace	13	2	4	7	-12	10
14	Swansea	12	2	3	7	-10	9
15	Southampton	11	1	5	5	-8	8
16	Brighton	12	2	2	8	-10	8
17	Everton	12	1	5	6	-15	8
18	Huddersfield	12	2	2	8	-17	8
19	West Brom	12	1	4	7	-9	7
20	Stoke	12	1	3	8	-20	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.