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Primeira Liga
Referee: Luis Miguel Branco Godinho
Sp Lisbon
S U S S U
1–0
Full-time
Guimaraes
T T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Guimaraes
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
67%
33%
Points per game
2,3
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
3,0
3,7
Scored
2,5
1,7
Conceded
0,5
2,0
Goal diff per game
+2,0
-0,3
This season — Primeira Liga · 19/19 matches
Win Ø 58%
74%
42%
Points per game
2,5
1,4
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
47%
68%
Both score Ø 53%
47%
58%
Average goals
2,8
3,2
Scored
2,2
1,4
Conceded
0,6
1,8
Goal diff per game
+1,6
-0,4
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

71% Possession 29%
18 Shots 7
4 Shots on target 4
5 Blocked shots 0
4 Goalkeeper saves 3
9 Corners 3
2 Offside 1
7 Free kicks against 18
0 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Sp Lisbon 3. · Guimaraes 9.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Porto 19 15 4 0 +37 49
2 Benfica 20 14 5 1 +34 47
3 Sp Lisbon 19 14 5 0 +31 47
4 Sp Braga 20 14 1 5 +20 43
5 Rio Ave 20 10 3 7 +6 33
6 Maritimo 20 8 5 7 -4 29
7 Boavista 20 8 3 9 -3 27
8 Chaves 20 7 6 7 -4 27
9 Guimaraes 19 8 2 9 -7 26
10 Tondela 20 6 4 10 -9 22
11 Portimonense 20 5 6 9 -4 21
12 Belenenses 20 5 6 9 -9 21
13 Pacos Ferreira 20 5 6 9 -12 21
14 Feirense 20 6 2 12 -8 20
15 Moreirense 20 3 7 10 -15 16
16 Vitoria Setubal 20 2 9 9 -16 15
17 Estoril 19 4 3 12 -20 15
18 Aves 20 3 5 12 -17 14

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Sp Lisbon Guimaraes
Half-time 0–0
F. Montero 🔁
↦ Rúben Ribeiro
46′
S. Doumbia 🔁
↦ B. Dost
47′
67′
🟨 Alhassan Wakaso
Bruno César 🔁
↦ R. Battaglia
68′
70′
🟨 Jubal
75′
🔁 Hélder Ferreira
↦ P. Hurtado
81′
🔁 S. Rincón
↦ Raphinha
1–0 J. Mathieu
M. Acuña
84′
86′
🔁 Rafael Martins
↦ Rafael Miranda
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Sp Lisbon

4-2-3-1
1 Rui Patrício G
22 J. Mathieu D
5 Fábio Coentrão D
4 S. Coates D
13 S. Ristovski D
7 Rúben Ribeiro M
16 R. Battaglia M
14 William Carvalho M
8 Bruno Fernandes M
28 B. Dost F
9 M. Acuña M
Bench (7)
40 F. Montero
88 S. Doumbia
11 Bruno César
6 André Pinto
18 R. Salin
20 B. Ruiz
92 C. Piccini

Coach: Jorge Jesus

Guimaraes

4-2-3-1
1 Douglas Jesus G
20 João Aurélio D
2 Pedrão D
33 Jubal D
53 G. Konan D
5 Rafael Miranda M
16 P. Hurtado M
25 A. Wakaso M
49 J. Tallo F
71 Sturgeon M
11 Raphinha M
Bench (7)
22 Hélder Ferreira
19 S. Rincón
99 Rafael Martins
4 Marcos Valente
7 Francisco Ramos
15 V. García
36 Miguel Oliveira

Coach: Pedro Martins

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Luis Miguel Branco Godinho · 45 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,4 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
35,2 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,24 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.