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Premier League

Referee: Jonathan Moss

Stoke

U T U U U

0–2

Full-time

Man City

S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stoke Man City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

17%

83%

Points per game

1,2

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

1,5

3,2

Scored

0,8

2,7

Conceded

0,7

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+2,2

This season — Premier League · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 54%

21%

86%

Points per game

0,9

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 66%

59%

72%

Both score Ø 54%

55%

52%

Average goals

2,8

3,6

Scored

1,0

2,9

Conceded

1,9

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,9

+2,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

22% Possession 78%

3 Shots 17

0 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 10

2 Offside 4

6 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Stoke 19. · Man City 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	29	25	3	1	+63	78
2	Man United	30	20	5	5	+35	65
3	Tottenham	30	18	7	5	+34	61
4	Liverpool	30	17	9	4	+34	60
5	Chelsea	30	17	5	8	+25	56
6	Arsenal	30	14	6	10	+14	48
7	Burnley	30	11	10	9	+1	43
8	Leicester	30	10	10	10	+2	40
9	Everton	30	10	7	13	-14	37
10	Watford	30	10	6	14	-11	36
11	Brighton	30	8	10	12	-12	34
12	Bournemouth	30	8	9	13	-13	33
13	Newcastle	30	8	8	14	-10	32
14	Swansea	30	8	7	15	-17	31
15	Huddersfield	30	8	7	15	-25	31
16	West Ham	30	7	9	14	-21	30
17	Southampton	30	5	13	12	-15	28
18	Crystal Palace	30	6	9	15	-20	27
19	Stoke	29	6	9	14	-26	27
20	West Brom	30	3	11	16	-24	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	15	14	1	0	+41	43
2	Man United	15	12	2	1	+26	38
3	Arsenal	15	11	2	2	+22	35
4	Tottenham	15	10	4	1	+22	34
5	Liverpool	15	9	6	0	+23	33
6	Chelsea	15	10	2	3	+15	32
7	Everton	15	9	2	4	+7	29
8	Brighton	15	6	6	3	+0	24
9	Leicester	15	6	5	4	+4	23
10	Burnley	15	6	4	5	+0	22
11	Watford	15	6	4	5	-4	22
12	Swansea	15	6	2	7	-4	20
13	Huddersfield	15	5	5	5	-5	20
14	Newcastle	15	5	4	6	+0	19
15	Bournemouth	15	5	4	6	-4	19
16	West Ham	14	5	4	5	-4	19
17	Stoke	14	5	4	5	-5	19
18	Crystal Palace	15	4	5	6	-5	17
19	Southampton	16	3	7	6	-5	16
20	West Brom	15	2	7	6	-8	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	14	11	2	1	+22	35
2	Tottenham	15	8	3	4	+12	27
3	Liverpool	15	8	3	4	+11	27
4	Man United	15	8	3	4	+9	27
5	Chelsea	15	7	3	5	+10	24
6	Burnley	15	5	6	4	+1	21
7	Leicester	15	4	5	6	-2	17
8	Watford	15	4	2	9	-7	14
9	Bournemouth	15	3	5	7	-9	14
10	Arsenal	15	3	4	8	-8	13
11	Newcastle	15	3	4	8	-10	13
12	Southampton	14	2	6	6	-10	12
13	Swansea	15	2	5	8	-13	11
14	West Ham	16	2	5	9	-17	11
15	Huddersfield	15	3	2	10	-20	11
16	Brighton	15	2	4	9	-12	10
17	Crystal Palace	15	2	4	9	-15	10
18	Stoke	15	1	5	9	-21	8
19	Everton	15	1	5	9	-21	8
20	West Brom	15	1	4	10	-16	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.